Canada Markets

Historical July Production Estimates Vs. Final Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the percent change between Statistics Canada's July preliminary production estimates and the final production estimates released in December. The red bars represent the five-year average percent change for all crops but lentils, which represents a three-year average. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Ahead of Statistics Canada's Production of Principal field crops report to be released on Aug, 23, here is a look at how the preliminary estimates based on July surveys have compared to final November estimates which are released in early December.

As seen on the attached chart, July estimates tend to be conservative in relation to the final production estimates released in December, as seen in the blue bars, which measures the percent change between the July estimates and the November estimates in 2015 as well as the red bars, which measures the average percent change between the July estimates and the final November estimates. This is based on a five-year average for most of the selected crops other than lentils, which is based on a three—year average.

Over the past five years (2011 through 2015) the average percent change across all of the selected crops between July and November estimates ranged from just 2% in 2012 to 20.2% in 2013. The average change across the selected crops in 2015 was the second highest of the five years in question, largely driven by a wild swing in canola production estimated from the 13.3 million metric ton estimate released in July to the final 17.2 mmt estimate released in December, largely due to estimated yields climbing across all three provinces.

Of the crops selected, the estimates for all-wheat, durum, corn and soybeans were increased in all five of the December estimates from 2011 through 2015, with the highest average percent change seen in durum at 14.4%. At the same time, the December production estimate for barley was increased in two of the five years in question while lowered in the other three years. The final December estimate for barley has averaged just 2.6% higher than the July estimate, the lowest percent change among these commodities while indicating the most accurate July estimate across these commodities.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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