Canada Markets

A Look at Historical March to June StatsCan Acreage Changes

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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On average over the past five years, StatsCan has shown a tendency to reduce seeded acreage estimates for most major grains in the June report, as shown in red. At the same time, the estimates for area seeded to canola, soybeans and lentils tends to rise in the June report, as shown in blue. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

In advance of Statistics Canada's Principal field crop areas report slated for June 29, the attached graphic highlights the average percent change in acres seen across the major field crops between the first two acreage reports of the year. The first is the Principal field crop areas, March report, commonly referred to as March intentions, with producer interviews conducted between mid-March and March 31 of each year. The second report is the Principal field crop areas, June report, which is based on surveys conducted between late May while ending in and around the June 10 timeframe.

As seen on the attached chart, the acreage seeded to most crops tends to be trimmed in the June report, as indicated by the red bars. Cereal crops tend to see the bulk of this acreage revision, with spring wheat acres averaging 2.3% lower on average over the past five years, while durum acres are 4.3% lower, barley at 4.1% lower, corn at 3.1% lower and oats at 5.3% lower.

Crops that have seen acreage estimates hiked on average over the 2011-through-2015 period include canola at a 3% increase between March and June, soybeans at 5.2% and lentils averaging 11.5%. Canola acres have risen between 2.2% and 4.4% in each of the past five years. Soybean acres have risen between .8% and 8.7% in each of the five years. Lentil acres have been revised between 3.7% to 19% higher over each of the past five years, with double-digit upward revisions seen in each of the past three years.

When the March intentions acreages are compared to pre-report trade estimates reported by Commodity News Service, we see that the 19.345 million acre canola estimate was well below the 19.7 to 21.3 ma trade estimate, which could also support an upward revision in canola acres. Two other crops that saw the seeded acre estimate vary from the pre-report estimates are durum and flax. The 6.120 million acre durum estimate is above the 5.4 to 6 million acre trade estimate, leading to a potential cut in acres seeded to durum, As well, the March report estimated 1.115 million acres of flax, well below the 1.5 to 1.8 ma trade estimate.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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