This week's Statistics Canadian International Merchandise trade data for February, covering the first half of the September-through-August crop year, show 81,573 metric tons of corn exported in February, a four-month low. Cumulative exports as of February total 449,635 mt (black line on the attached chart), more than double the pace of last year's exports (red line) and just slightly higher than the three-year average (blue line).
The most recent Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates indicate that 900,000 mt will be exported in the 2015/16 crop year, with the cumulative volume equal to the steady pace needed to reach this volume.
The potential exists for exports to exceed current estimates. The current estimate of 900,000 mt is more than double the 416,000 mt shipped in 2014/15, which is viewed to result in a 2 million metric ton carryout in the current crop year, which is only 1,000 mt below the 2005/06 carryout, the highest volume ever carried out of a Canadian crop year.
In 2014/15, 46% of the annual exports were moved in the first six months of the crop year, while in 2013/14 this total was only 27.3% and 29.6% in 2012/13. Given last year's pace of movement, exports could reach 977,465 in the current crop year, while should movement continue to follow the three-year pace, the total volume moved would suggest total movement at 1.340 mmt. The 2013/14 pace would suggest total volumes shipped reaching over 1.6 mmt.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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