Canada Markets

Another One for the Record Books?

By Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
The combined lentil and dry pea acreage of Canada has increased from close to 1.1 million acres in 1991 to a record 7.6 million acres in 2015, while one private estimate has suggested a potential 32% increase to 10 million acres in 2016, as indicated by the yellow bar on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Here's a number that caught my eye today. Murad Al-Katib, President and Chief Executive Officer of AGT Food and Ingredients, has estimated that dry pea and lentil acres on the Prairies will exceed 10 million acres in 2016, which would represent a whopping 31.6% increase from Statistics Canada's estimate of a record 7.63 million acres planted in 2015.

As seen on the attached chart, combined pea and lentil acres have jumped from roughly 1.1 million acres in 1991 to a record 7.63 million acres in 2015, an average compound growth of 8.1%. Growth in lentil acres has jumped from 588,531 planted acres to 3.950 million acres, an average compound growth rate of 7.9%. The compound growth rate for dry pea acres is 8.4% over the same 25-year period according to Statistics Canada data, ranging from 490,290 acres to 3.680 million acres planted in 2015.

This forecast exceeds the most recent February estimates released by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada who call for a combined 8.65 million acres planted to these two crops, a year-over-year increase in seeded acres of 13.8% or approximately 1 million acres.

This leads to the debate surrounding where the acres will come from. According to Statistics Canada, there was a record low 2.56 million acres of summerfallow in 2015, although current AAFC estimates indicate a 2.9%, or 2.1 million acres, increase in planted acres of all field crops in 2016. Of the major crops, current estimates show wheat (excluding durum) and oats are expected to see year-over-year declines in seeded acres, although both markets have struggled and may see greater-than-expected reductions.

Another forecast released by Al-Katib, tweeted from a Prairie Grain Development Committee meeting, indicates that global production of pulses is expected to soon increase from over 50 million metric tons to in excess of 60 mmt.

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DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think will be the biggest story in 2016 with regards to year-over-year reductions in acreage of various Canadian crops. You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's 360 Poll which is found at the lower-right corner of your DTN Home Page. Thanks for your support!

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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