Canada Markets

A Look at Potential Manitoba Crop Returns

By Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
This chart indicates estimated 2016 returns for Manitoba crops given a number of assumptions made for both costs and expected returns. Of the selected crops, navy beans and winter wheat returns pose the greatest opportunity, while barley, oats and flax acres could fall. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives have recently released the annual Guidelines for Estimating Crop Production Costs 2016 publication. Tables in this publication include a number of assumptions and this research acts more as a starting point which can be updated with personal data.

As seen on the attached chart, indicated returns fall as you move from the left to the right. The province's largest crops of canola (3.140 million acres), spring wheat (2.915 million acres) and soybeans (1.285 million acres) are all showing the potential for positive returns in 2016, with 2015 seeded acres in brackets.

The three highest return crops are reported as navy beans ($69.18 per acre), winter wheat ($51.10/acre) and corn ($45.46/acre), with per acre yields in brackets.

Row crops such as corn and soybeans should see increased interest with Manitoba Co-operator reporting record yields of 136 bushels per acre and 39 bpa, respectively, based on information from Manitoba Agricultural Services Branch. This data exceeds the 126.5 bpa and 37 bpa yields reported by Statistics Canada. An increase in acres planted to soybeans, with early indications of acres reaching 1.5 million, would represent the ninth consecutive year of acreage expansion for the province.

This crop year's rapid rise in pulse prices will lead to increased interest in pulses in Manitoba, with increased acres of peas and dry beans likely. As seen on the attached chart, navy bean returns are expected to be the highest of all crops, although acres are small. Today's release of G3 Canada Limited's first Pool Return Outlook for 2016/17 indicates an expected shift from cereals into soybeans and pulses in Western Canada. As indicated on the attached chart, current projections show potential losses for barley ($14.45/acre), oats ($15.74/acre) and flax ($17.52/acre), with potential losses in brackets. These crops could see acreage declines.


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