Canada Markets

2014 and 2015 Canola Yields and Percentage of Trend

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green and yellow bars represent the yield for canola for 2014 and 2015 for the Prairies and Canada as a whole, as measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the percent of the 20-year trend in 2014, while the purple line is the percent of the 20-year trend achieved in 2015, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

According to Statistics Canada' Dec. 4 report, Canada's monstrous 17.2-million-metric-ton canola crop was achieved on lower harvested acres and higher-than-expected yields. Canada's total harvested acres is estimated to have fallen 3.1% to 19.974 million acres, with a 1.8% increase in harvested acres in Manitoba offset by a .1% decrease in Saskatchewan and a 10% drop in Alberta.

Despite the challenges faced this growing season, from early frost in the eastern Prairies to drought in the western Prairies, canola crops recovered to achieve higher yields than expected and also higher yields that achieved in 2014 across the Prairies. This is noted on the attached chart with the yellow bars exceeding the green bars, as measured against the primary vertical axis on the left.

Canada's average canola yield was estimated at 38 bushels per acre, the second highest on record next to the 40.6 bpa estimated for 2013. Manitoba's average yield is estimated to have jumped 11.9%, from 2014 to 40.3 bpa, while the Saskatchewan yield increased by 10.6%, to 36.5 bpa, and Alberta's provincial average increased by 4.5% to 39.7 bpa.

The two lines with markers represents 2014 and 2015 yields as a percent of their 20-year trend which allows a contrast between these two years, as measured against the percentage scale on the secondary vertical axis on the right (1994-to-2013 trend for 2014, and 1995-to-2014 trend for 2015).

The back line represents 2014 yields as a percent of the 20-year trend. Canada's average yield of 35.1 bpa was 97.5% of the 20-year trend, with Alberta's yield at 93.4% of trend, Saskatchewan at 98.8% and Manitoba at 104% of trend.

The purple line with markers highlights 2015 yields as a percentage of the 1995-to-2014 trend, with the overall Canadian yield at 103.8% of the trend value. By province, Alberta's yield was 96.6% of the 1995-to-2014 20-year trend, Saskatchewan's estimated yield was 106.7% of trend and Manitoba's yield was 114.2% of trend.

Using simple trend forecasting tools within Excel, this same trend can be extrapolated to estimate 2016 yields, which would be indicated at 35.7 bpa in Manitoba, 34.9 bpa in Saskatchewan and 42 bpa in Alberta. Canada's 20-year trend could also be used to forecast the average national yield at 37.3 bpa.


DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think about Statistics Canada's recent estimate of 17.2 million metric tons for 2015 canola production. Do you believe it? You can weigh in with your thoughts on DTN's 360 poll found on the lower right of your DTN Home Page. We would like to thank all those for their past contributions to DTN polls.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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