Canada Markets

Exports as of Week 11 Compared to Target/Historical Movement

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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With the crop year approximately 21% complete, this chart compares week 11 cumulative exports against current AAFC export estimates for 2015/16 (blue bars), as well as against cumulative exports for week 11 in 2014 (red bars) and the five-year average (green bars). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops saw supply and demand tables adjusted to account for Statistics Canada's Oct. 2 production estimates, which resulted in a 2.674 million metric tons increase in production of the grains and oilseeds and a 319,000 metric ton increase in production of pulses and special crops. As a result, both export and domestic demand have been revised higher in the October report released Thursday.

AAFC's estimate for Canadian wheat exports has been revised 1 mmt higher to 16 mmt, down 14.7% or 2.766 mmt from 2014/15 and would be a three-year low. As of week 11, or the first 21% of the crop year, 3.649 mmt has been shipped which represents 22.8% of the annual target and is ahead of the pace needed to achieve the newly revised export target, considering licensed exports only. This is represented by the blue bar on the attached chart. In total, cumulative exports are 264,000 mt ahead of the pace needed to reach the 16 mmt target.

Also seen on the attached chart is wheat exports behind last year's pace at 88.4% of the week 11 exports reported in 2014/15 (red bar) and 119.1% of the average cumulative volume shipped in the last five-years (green bar).

AAFC's October report revised expected durum exports 100,000 mt higher to 4.2 mmt. This is down 18.8% or .970 mmt from 2014/15 and would be a four-year low. As of week 11, 540,300 mt has been shipped, 12.9% of the annual export target and behind the pace needed to reach the target. In total, licensed exports remain close to 350,000 mt behind the steady pace needed to reach the estimated export volume. This volume shipped represents 47.8% of the volume shipped in the same period in 2014/15 and is 60.8% of the five-year average.

AAFC's estimate for oat exports was left unchanged at 2.125 mmt down 4.6% from 2014/15 and the lowest volume shipped in five years but by a narrow margin. Year-to-date exports at 267,900 mt are just 12.6% of the annual target and well behind the cumulative volume needed to reach this target (licensed exports only). Cumulative exports are 110.2% of the volume shipped in the same time frame in 2014/15, while are 92.2% of the five-year average.

Barley exports in 2015/16 were revised slightly higher by an amount of 75,000 mt to 2.275 mmt in AAFC's latest data release, which would be down 7.6% from last crop year and a three-year low. Year-to-date exports are well-behind the pace needed to reach this target at just 3.9% of the target with 21% of the crop year over. Cumulative exports are 52.4% of 2014 and 51.5% of the five-year average.

The estimate for flax exports were left unchanged at 800,000 mt, up 13.2% from 2014/15 and would be the highest volume shipped since 1997/98. At 16,200 mt shipped as of week 11, cumulative exports are just 2% of the target and well-behind the cumulative pace needed to reach the target. As well, year-to-date exports are 63.3% of last year and 42.6% of the five-year average.

AAFC increased its estimate for canola exports by a modest 400,000 mt since its September report to 7.5 mmt, which would be 18% below the 9.154 mmt shipped in 2014/15 and a three-year low. As of week 11, 2.046 mmt has been shipped which represents 27.3% of the AAFC's target, which indicates movement is ahead of the pace needed to reach this target. In total, movement through licensed facilities is 459,000 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the 7.5 mmt target. Current exports are 105.6% of the pace reported for 2014/15 when record exports were achieved, while 129.5% of the five-year average.

AAFC increased its export target for dry peas by 400,000 mt to 2.9 mmt, a volume which would be 6.3% below last year and a two-year low. As of week 11, or the first 21% of the crop year, current exports have reached 35.9% of this target and well ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the target. Exports as of week 11 are 110.7% of last year's volume during the first 11 weeks and 158.2% of the five-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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