Canada Markets

Tendencies Found in Stats Canada Acreage Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the five-year average percent change in seeded acres of selected Canadian crops between the March intentions report and the Preliminary estimates released in June (blue bars), as well as the five-year average percent change between the Preliminary estimates released in June and the final estimates released in December (red bars). (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise).

June 30 marks the day when the USDA releases its 2015 Acreage report while Statistics Canada releases its annual Preliminary estimates of principal field crop areas report, updating previous estimates released in its March Intentions report.

Seeded acre data may be viewed only briefly this time around, with a far greater concern being the yield potential for those acres, especially areas of the western Prairies. An interview with Bruce Burnett of CWB in the Alberta Express suggests that the damage to the crop is largely done and "even if we do get some rains here over the next two weeks, the amount that the crops can recover in terms of yield is probably limited."

The attached chart shows tendencies in Statistics Canada seeded acre data over the past five years, with the blue bars representing the average percent change in acres between the March Intentions report and the June Preliminary estimates report in the five-year 2010 to 2014 period, while the red bars represent the average percent change between the June report and final acreage estimates released in December.

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Over the past five years, there was a tendency for Statistics Canada data to underestimate acres of canola, soybeans, peas and lentils in the March report when compared to the June release. On average, canola acres were reported 3.7% higher in June, soybeans 6.1% higher, lentils 11.8% higher and peas at a lesser .1% increase.

Grains on the other hand, tend to be overstated in the early March Intentions report, with the five-year average percent change between the early report and the latter report released in June indicating a 1.7% drop in spring wheat acres, a 6.3% drop in durum, 4.9% in barley, 3.2% on corn, 5.3% in oats and 6.7% drop in flax acres.

When comparing the June preliminary estimates to the final estimates released in December, all of the selected crops expect for corn tend to have acres overstated in the June preliminary report. On average, corn acres have been boosted 1.1% in the final estimates, while other crops fell between .2% for canola and 15.7% for flax.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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