Canada Markets

USDA Forecasts Canada's 2014/15 Wheat Exports to Surpass the U.S.

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The red bars and blue bars represent the annual all-wheat exports for the United States and Canada over the past 20 years, as measured against the primary vertical axis. Tuesday's USDA report shows Canada's 2014/15 exports surpassing the U.S. by a slim margin. The black and purple lines represent the percent of global exports realized by each country, as measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

A month ago, after the April release of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report by the USDA, I made brief comments that USDA estimates suggest that Canada's 2014/15 potential all-wheat (including durum) exports were in striking distance of the volume estimated for the United States. At the time, the U.S. estimate for exports was reported at 23.95 million metric tons, while Canada's exports were estimated at 23.5 mmt. I made the comment that Canada was on the verge of becoming the world's second largest exporter, next to the volumes shipped by the European Union.

Tuesday's release of the May WASDE shows forecasts which point to Canada's potential to surpass U.S. volumes, with Canada's estimated exports at 23.5 mmt. The trend in U.S. exports (blue bars) as compared to Canada's exports (red bars) is shown on the attached chart for the past 20 years since 1994/95. While the 2014/15 bars on the chart indicate equal volumes shipped by both counties, over the past 20 years the U.S. has shipped an average of 11.6 mmt more than Canada each year, with the largest spread of 19 mmt seen in 2010/11.

The lines on the chart show the trend in the share of the global all-wheat exports held by the two countries over the past 20 years. The steepest decline is seen in U.S. exports, as shown on the chart by the black line, measured against the secondary vertical axis. Current estimates suggest the U.S. will supply 14.3% of the global export volume in 2014/15. This is down from the 20-year high of 29.6% and the average share over the past 20 years of 23.6%.

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Canada's share of the all-wheat global export volume has been lower over time but consistent, with the 14.4% share forecast for 2014/15 compared to the 20-year high of 18.8% and higher than the 20-year average of 14%.

Not shown on the chart, USDA data shows the volume supplied by the combined countries of the former Soviet Union jumping from 3.5% of global trade in 1994/95 to 22.4% in 2013/14.


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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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