Canada Markets

Canadian March Seeding Intentions vs. Actual Planted Acres

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Over the 2010 through 2014 period, Statistics Canada's March Intentions report tends to overstate the acres planted to cereals such as spring wheat, durum, barley and oats as well as flaxseed, while canola, soybean and lentil acres tend to be understated. The blue bars represent the average percent change in the past three years, while the red bars represent the average percent change over the past five years. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

With Statistics Canada's first estimates for planted acres for 2015 set to roll out April 23, today's graphic indicates tendencies which have presented themselves over time for this report.

Note that the report indicates producers' intentions as of March 31, with the 2014 report suggesting data was collected between March 24 and March 31, early enough that decisions could be swayed prior to seeding in late April and May. As well, the March data is based on surveys conducted in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, while other grain producing provinces which are suggested to account for 2 to 4% of the country's production are excluded until the later June report.

Perhaps the greatest challenge faced is seen in forecasting summerfallow acres, a result of a number of wet spring seasons on the eastern Prairies which ultimately affects the acres seeded for a number of crops. Over the past five years, summerfallow acres have been underestimated in the March intentions report each year, with the five-year percent change between the March report and the final estimate released in December averaging 49.6% (red bar on attached chart). This ranges from a low of 7.9% in 2013 to a high of 131.7% in 2011, when summerfallow acres were more than double the area estimated in March. The blue bars on the attached graphic represent the shorter three-year average of the percent change, calculated at 17.8%.

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One interesting point is that areas seeded to cereals and flax are typically overestimated in the March seeding intentions report, while seeding intentions for crops such as canola, soybeans and lentils are typically understated in the March report.

Over the five years in question, March estimates for spring wheat, durum, barley, oats and flax have been overstated each year in the March estimates, or in other words, final seeded acres were reported lower in the final December report each year between 2010 and 2014 for each of these crops. The largest swings were seen in the smaller oat and flax crops.

Of the crops which tend to see their seeded acres understated in the March report, only soybeans have been underestimated in March across all five years. Canola and lentil seeded acres have been understated in four of the past five years, with lentils showing the greatest tendency to be understated in the March report in percentage change terms, with final acres reported to be 12.7% higher on average over the past three years and 10.5% higher on average over the past five years.


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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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