Canada Markets

In a recent blog, DTN Contributing Analyst Joe Karlin looked at the growth in corn acres in the U.S. over time. In total, acres have grown 2.7% across the U.S. in the last five years, 10.8% over the last 10 years and 22.2% over the past 25 years.

Just as we have seen with soybeans in Wednesday's Canada Markets blog, the fastest U.S. growth in recent years is seen in North Dakota, with both the five-year and 15-year compound annual growth rate in seeded acres above 6%. The third-fastest growth rate is seen in the state of South Dakota, with the five-year compounded annual growth rate approximately 5%. Karlin suggests a combination of both higher prices and the increased accessibility of shorter-season varieties are behind this expansion

While Canada's overall acreage has declined 0.07% in the past five years, planted acreage has grown 11.9% in the past 10 years and 17.3% in the past 25 years.

The attached chart shows the longer-term trends in Canada's corn acres. Canada's compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) shows a weakening trend, with the 25-year CAGR at 0.7% while falling to 0.2% in the past five years.

The more mature markets of Ontario and Quebec, where 89.4% of Canada's crop acres were planted in 2014, also show a weak rate of growth, with Ontario's five-year CAGR calculated at 0.3% while Quebec's five-year CAGR is at a negative 1.5% growth rate.

Much faster growth is seen in the western growing areas of Alberta and Manitoba. The five-year CAGR in each province is calculated at 5.9%, despite Manitoba showing a drop in acres in three of the past five years.

Given the country's five and 25-year trends, 2015 acres could range from 3.084 to 3.099 million acres. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has forecast acres at 3.274 million acres in their February outlook, a 6.3% increase from 2014.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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