Canada Markets

Thursdays Reports from Sask Ag and CWB

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
Almost all crop ratings in Saskatchewan fell from the previous week, with the sharpest declines seen in the lentil and barley crops which saw the Good to Excellent ratings drop 12%. Just the same, the most recent ratings (red bars) are not far below ratings reported for the same period in 2013 (green bars), such as seen in spring wheat and barley data. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

The CWB updated its price indications for the 2014/15 crop today, providing a glimpse of what's to come based on a snapshot in time. Despite weather-related challenges faced on the Prairies and Northern Plains of the United States, conditions are viewed to be favorable overall, which has weighed on futures markets, while recent strength in the Canadian dollar has also acted to limit potential returns for Canadian crops.

The Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for all grades of Canada Western Red Spring were reported to be $25 to $26 per metric tonne below the May 22 report. No. 1 CWRS 13.5% protein now shows a PRO of $280/mt in store either Vancouver or St Lawrence for both the Early Delivery Pool (delivery by January 31) and the Annual Pool (delivery by July 31).

Durum prospects, however, are improving. Excess moisture for the crop in Italy and Greece is mentioned as a driving force in this market, with the PROs for all grades of durum $10/mt higher that reported in May. No. 1 CWAD 13% protein durum PRO is reported at $324/mt for the Early Pool and $319/mt for the Annual Pool.

A record level of global course grain supplies is expected to limit the potential for barley prices in the upcoming crop year, despite a forecast for lower production in not only Canada but also in the E.U., Australia and Ukraine. The barley PROs were left unchanged this month at $290/mt in store.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

It's been a busy week for the CWB, also announcing the agreement to take over operations of the Great Sandhills Terminal at Leader, Saskatchewan. This arrangement also includes a leap into the short-line railway business, with a majority stake in the Great Sandhills Railway running between Swift Current and Burstall, Sask. This follows the June 9 announcement that the deal to acquire the operations of Prairie West Terminals, also in west-central Saskatchewan.

Saskatchewan's latest crop report was also out today, which indicated an excess of precipitation last week continuing to limit crop prospects. Of the 14 crops followed by Sask. Ag, only fall rye saw a week-over-week improvement in its Good to Excellent rating. Of the other 13 crops, the week/week drop ranged from 1% G/E lower for mustard, while both lentils and barley faced a 12% drop. Of the 13 crops that saw their G/E rating fall, the average decrease was 6%.

Despite the challenges faced, some crops continue to reflect a G/E rating which is close to year-ago levels. The closest is wheat, where the June 23 G/E rating is 82%, just 1% below the 83% reported one year ago. With a recent G/E rating of 76%, the barley crop remains just 2% below last year's rating. Canola's recent rating of 73% is 6% below last week although is just 3% below year-ago levels.

Crop watchers will be patiently waiting for a break in the weather pattern that brought as much as 4 inches to the province last week, although that may not be in the cards for the upcoming days. The five-day forecast from the National Weather Service indicates a pattern that is expected to bring significant moisture from as far south as Kansas and running north across southeastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba which could bring over 2 inches to areas in Saskatchewan that are already facing excessive moisture.


DTN 360 Poll

When asked in a recent poll how weather-related delays have affected cropping choices this spring, 55% of respondents suggested there will be no change to cropping choices on their farm or in their area. 23% suggested that seeding delays would lead to a switch to shorter-season crops, while 22% suggested that the crop would not be changed but shorter season varieties would be substituted for earlier choices.

This week's poll focuses on Friday's Statistics Canada report. What do you feel will be the biggest surprise in the numbers presented? Please feel free to share your thoughts on DTN's weekly poll found on your DTN Home Page.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES/)

P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Comments

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .