Canada Markets

Change in Final Canadian Planted Acres vs. March Seeding Intentions

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Of the grains studied on this chart, Statistics Canada's final acreage estimate has on average tended to be lower than the March Intentions released in April for all except for canola and soybeans. The range varies from minus 14.6% for oats to plus 5.1% for canola. (DTN graphic)

In a recent DTN Fundamentally Speaking Blog, DTN contributing analyst Joel Karlin compared the percent change between the corn and soybean acreage reported in USDA's Prospective Planting Report released in March and the final reported acreage. Karlin mentions factors that can cause acres to swing such as price changes in the spring, weather and seed availability. Nailing down acreage in Canada is perhaps even more complex, taking into account the greater number of cropping options available in many areas as well as the current focus on what will move and what will not.

Karlin demonstrated that over the past five years, acreage of both corn and beans changed very little from the acreage reported in the Prospective Planting report to the final planted acres in the United States. The average change over the past five years was 0.5% for soybeans, while for corn, he suggests there was literally no change.

Compare this to the swings seen in Canada. The largest swings in the 2009 to 2013 period were seen in the grains, with the largest change seen in oats. Over the five-year period, the actual acreage seeded to oats averaged 14.6% below the acreage reported in the March Intentions report, ranging from 6.3% lower in 2013 to 25.1% lower in 2010. Barley and durum posted similar data, with actual barley acres seeded estimated to be 10.2% below the March intentions and actual durum areas over the five years averaged 9.5% below the March Intentions.

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On average, acres seeded to dry peas averaged 2.6% below the acreage reported in the March intentions over the past five years. As in the U.S., Statistics Canada has the corn acreage down to a science, with seeded acres in Canada over the past five years averaging just 0.7% below the March Intentions.

While the five-year trend has indicated that Statistics Canada has tended to overestimate spring wheat, durum, oats, barley, peas and corn acres in the spring release of the March Intentions planting report, the opposite can be said for both canola and soybean acres, as they tend to underestimate these acres.

On average, soybean acres have proved to be 5% higher than the March Intentions report, while final canola acres have averaged 5.1% above what was reported in the March report. Final soybean acres ranged from 2.5% higher in 2011 to 7.1% higher in 2009. Final canola acres were reported to be 1.2% below March intentions in 2011, although final acres were higher in the other four years, ranging as high as 10.3% above March Intentions in 2009.

Statistics Canada is set to release the March Intentions report on April 24.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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