Canada Markets

March Canola Planting Intentions vs. Actual Seeded Acres

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart measures the difference in canola acres planted from Statistics Canada March Intentions report to the final estimate for seeded acres. The red line represents the difference in 1000 acres, as measured against the primary y-axis on the left, while the blue columns represent the percent difference, as measured against the secondary right-hand y-axis. (DTN Graphic by Nick Scalise)

On April 24, Statistics Canada will release their March Planting Intentions of Principal Field Crop Areas. Making accurate projections this early in the season may be viewed as a difficult task, while a spring like the one we're facing perhaps presents even larger challenges to the statisticians.

Over the past 10 years, the actual seeded acres for canola were higher than the acres forecast in the March intentions in all but one year. Over this period, actual acres averaged 5.9% higher than the March intentions, as indicated by the blue columns on the chart measured against the right or primary y-axis. This difference, when measured in acres, was 899,400 acres on average, as measured by the red markers which are measured against the left-hand or secondary y-axis.

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It's difficult to determine whether this data is highly correlated to the weather conditions faced in spring and the level of difficulty faced in seeding as a result. 2011 is perhaps the most challenging spring conditions faced in the past 10-years in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while the difference between March intentions and actual seeded acres was -1.2%, or the actual acres planted were 1.2% below the March forecast. At the same time, 2010 was also a challenging spring, as noted in Saskatchewan Agriculture's final Crop Report, where actual acres were 3.9% higher than the March intentions.

Given the type of spring currently faced on the prairies, there is a real chance that some acres may be shifted, meaning that March intentions may be already outdated. Regardless, March intentions tend to be conservative, given actual acres of canola being higher than intended acres in nine of the past 10 years.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

(AG)

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