Canada Markets

Canadian Grain Exports Neck-in-Neck with 2011/12 Volumes

By Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
With the 2012/13 crop year now 42% complete, exports for Western Canada's larger volume crops are maintaining a pace which is greater than the three-year average for wheat, canola and durum exports. There has been a recent pickup in wheat movement, while canola exports have slowed in recent weeks. (DTN graphic by Nick Scalise)

Canadian wheat exports took a jump with the release of the combined week 21/22 data as seen in the Canadian Grain Commission's Grain Statistics Weekly report released Tuesday.

Canadian wheat exports are now 3.3% behind the same date in 2011/12, while 2% above the three-year average of the same week. Week 20's data indicated a shipping pace that was 7.9% behind last year and 3.8% behind the three-year average.

Durum exports are well ahead of past years, with week 22 data indicating movement at 1.9 mmt, which is 32.1% higher than the same week last year and 28.1% ahead of the three-year average.

Combined all-wheat exports (wheat and durum), at 7.5 mmt, are 4% higher than the same week in 2011/12. This volume represents 40% of the estimated 18.7 mmt all-wheat exports currently forecast by Ag Canada, with crop year now 42.3% complete. For comparison sake, U.S. exports of all-wheat, as of Dec 27, are 3% behind the export pace from the previous year.

Producer deliveries of wheat remain steady, with current deliveries 2.8% ahead of 2011/12 and 14.9% ahead of the three-year average. Deliveries of durum are 17.4% ahead of last year and 19.7% ahead of the three-year average.

Canola exports are slowing, with week 22 data indicating a pace of exports which is 9.9% behind last year, although 4.8% ahead of the three-year average. Domestic consumption of canola remains robust, currently 20.7% ahead of week 22 of 2011/12, while 36.2% ahead of the thee-year average based on increased crush capacity. Canola stocks have yet to be rationed despite much tighter supplies, with total disappearance at 2.2% ahead of last year and 17.4% ahead of the three-year average.

Producer deliveries of canola have slowed, with week 22 data indicating movement at 2.6% behind last year, although still remains at a pace which is 15.8% ahead of the three-year average.

Daily trade commentary references the lack of producer deliveries, which is leading to premiums being paid in select locations and basis levels as narrow as $20 over the March. Oddly enough, comments made today suggest an upswing in producer deliveries, which pressured markets.

Over the past three years, producer deliveries, on average, have tended to trend sideways over the upcoming 10 weeks through to week 32. The total weekly average deliveries during the past three years was approximately 264,500 mt, which is well-below recent weekly deliveries, excluding the combined week 21/22 holiday data.

Visibile stocks for canola were reported at 1 mmt, which remain at comfortable levels. Of interest is that the visible stocks at 1 mmt plus the total disappearance of 6.5 mmt totals 7.5 mmt and represents 52.8% of the total estimated supplies of 14.2 mmt, with the crop year now 42.3% complete.

Barley exports are ahead of past years, at 703,000 mt. Malt exports remain challenged with competition from both Australian and Argentinean supplies, while difficulties are faced in sourcing supplies on the prairies and may jeopardize the 2 mmt target for 2012/13 exports.

Visible supplies of barley are 19.3% lower than last year, while 30.6% lower than the three-year average. Producer deliveries are 5.4% lower than last year.

Bulk pea exports continue to lag, with week 22 data indicating exports being 23% behind last year and 18.3% behind the three-year average. Oat exports have picked up their pace, at 569,600 mt, which is 9.7% behind last year, but 7% ahead of the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at


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