Ag Weather Forum

Colder Weather Pattern for Midwest

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
The European (left) and U.S. (right) jet stream models for the next six to 10 days shows the position of a trough will be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the Midwest and Northern Plains. (Penn State Meteorology graphic)

Soybean harvest progress continues to run behind normal in the western Midwest and Northern Plains. Despite progress last week the harvest remains about a week behind normal for soybeans.

Harvest progress for corn in the Northern Plains is well-behind normal. Harvest progress slowed in the eastern Midwest and is now running at or somewhat ahead of normal in all states except Ohio where the soybean harvest is behind normal.

The weather pattern during the next six to 10 days is expected to feature colder weather that will solidify the ground and make it easier for saturated soils to support harvest equipment.

The position of the trough aloft will be far enough to the east to limit precipitation in the Midwest and Northern Plains. We expect to see mostly below normal precipitation in the western Midwest and Northern Plains, and near to below normal in the eastern Midwest. Due to the lower temperatures, some of this precipitation will be in the form of snow. Harvest delays will lead to continued quality issues for soybeans as well as some possible crop losses.

Adequate to surplus soil moisture in the Southern Plains is very favorable for pre winter development of wheat. However, the wet weather has slowed planting progress in the major growing states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas where it has dropped behind normal. Below normal precipitation during the next six to 10 days will favor the remaining planting. However, a turn to colder weather will slow crop development.

We continue to see very favorable weather for developing soybeans in central Brazil with the rainy season now well underway. Wet weather in southern Brazil has slowed planting in some areas. However, with a drier weather pattern expected during the next five days, planting progress will increase. Only far northeast Brazil would benefit from more rain.

There will be mostly favorable soil moisture for corn planting and early soybean planting in the major growing areas of central Argentina. Dry weather into the end of the week will favor planting before showers and thunderstorms return during the weekend.

Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial pacific for the month of October was plus 1.4. This is up from the plus 0.4 observed during the month of September. Despite the fact that the atmospheric indices have yet to support warming in the Pacific Ocean, we are seeing signs of El Nino characteristics to the weather pattern with wet conditions in the southern and eastern U.S., including the southern and eastern Midwest.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at Michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(ES/)

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