Ag Weather Forum

Update On Ag College Yield Projection

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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Non-irrigated corn is either close to or at maturity and safe from frost. Irrigated corn soon will be in the same category. (UN-L Graphic by Scott Kemper)

Following is a selection from the latest rundown of corn yield projections in the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Cropwatch corn production study. The study is in cooperation with land grant universities and specialists across the Corn Belt. The rundown is as of Wednesday, September 7, 2016.--Bryce.

During the last two weeks there were below-average (nighttime and daytime) temperatures in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, near-average temperatures in Iowa, and below-average daytime temperatures in Nebraska. Rainy and cloudy conditions prevailed in Nebraska during this period. The rest of the locations exhibited near- or above-average rainfall, except for a few sites in Illinois and Iowa.

Physiological maturity (black layer) has been reached at about half of the rainfed sites. These sites are in the southern Corn Belt. Grain filling continues in the other half of rainfed sites, with most corn at dent stage. Irrigated corn has matured (Kansas) or will reach maturity soon (Nebraska).

The irrigated sites where corn has already matured exhibit yields slightly above average (+6%), except for Beatrice. A similar scenario is forecasted for the rest of the irrigated sites where maturity has not been reached yet.

Forecasted yields for rainfed corn indicate near-average yield at about half of 37 rainfed sites. These sites are mainly in the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Above-average yields are expected for 11 of the rainfed locations: western and central Nebraska, central-east and northeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri, eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota, and central Illinois. In contrast, the forecasts indicate below-average yield at five sites: southeastern Nebraska, and across a southeast-northwest transect in Iowa.

Forecasted 2016 state average yields in comparison to long-term average yields fall well above average (10% or more) in Nebraska (rainfed) and Minnesota (rainfed), average (3-9%) in Indiana, Illinois (both rainfed), and Kansas (rainfed and irrigated), near-average in Nebraska (irrigated) and Missouri and Ohio (both rainfed), and below-average (6%) in Iowa (rainfed).

Overall, our Sept. 7 forecasts suggest a near or slightly above average yield for the entire Corn Belt, with no clear indication of a record yield crop in 2016. Our forecasts indicate a high probability of near-average corn yields in 2016 in about half of rainfed sites, with above- and below-average yields expected in the rest of the locations. Slightly above-average yields are likely for irrigated corn.

Note that these forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease, or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here.

It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average on-farm yield for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop development stages and forecasted yields will deviate from the ones reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from the ones used as the basis for these forecasts.

The full report is at this link: http://goo.gl/…

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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