Ag Weather Forum

Rainy September Possible

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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The U.S. forecast model's September rainfall depiction has more wet conditions with potential early harvest issues in the western Midwest. (NOAA graphic)

NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS) model did a good job in outlining heavy rain potential for the western Corn Belt during the first half of August. It continues to show that trend for September. The forecast precipitation graphic displayed shows the mean -- or average -- precipitation forecast of the CFS ensemble.

The mean forecast presentation is a pretty soggy one for the western and northern Corn Belt -- with totals for September of 4 to 4 inches. If that verifies, it's likely going to put the brakes on early harvest efforts, and cause some delays in corn and soybean maturity as well.

This graphic goes in concert with another analysis from NOAA which shows that, during fall when El Nino is in effect, there is a high correlation to above-normal precipitation in once again the western and northern Corn Belt.

On the other hand, this forecast maintains harsh drought conditions in the western U.S., with hardly any -- and I do mean any -- precipitation during September.

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