Ag Weather Forum

Wintery Weather Will Favor Eastern Canada

Doug Webster
By  Doug Webster , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

With the 2013 growing and harvest season now mostly history, we start to look more closely at what late fall and early winter may bring to Western Canada. Will we see winter take hold soon, as it can sometimes, or will we see mild conditions for the next few weeks?

Some clues are starting to show up that may help us determine where the weather pattern will go during the next few weeks, but for the winter we generally like to see what October and at least part of November offer before making a pitch for the winter season.

During recent days, we have begun to see changes to the overall jet stream flow across Canada and the U.S. A ridge has begun to develop through the eastern Gulf of Alaska and this ridge is forecast to expand into Western Canada during next week and possibly for most of the remainder of October. At the same time, the eastern half of Canada should see a strengthening downstream trough develop.

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What this all means for the Prairies is that while we may see a few shots of colder weather, sustained cold or any major snow events do not look probable during the next two weeks. The eastern half of Canada looks to be the region where colder-than-normal temperatures are most likely for the remainder of October. This does not mean that a couple of brief periods of chill will affect the Prairies, but more than likely Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan will be more in line for some cold once in a while.

As is normal during the cold half of the year, upslope winds can develop and produce some light snow for some areas and we can't rule this out once or twice as we round out October. We do not see much chance at this point of a major and widespread snowfall for the Prairies; this should allow any remaining harvest or fieldwork operations to finish up during the coming week or two.

The early take on November is that milder and drier-than-normal conditions would be favored for the western half of Canada while the best chance of cold weather would be across Eastern Canada. It should be noted that even though that may be the forecast, a few short periods of cold weather and snow can still be seen during such a period.

The developing Western Canadian ridge is sure to begin the process of expanding snow cover and chilling weather across central and north-central Canada during the next week to two weeks; however, for now it appears the Prairies will escape the core of any major cold outbreaks or major snow. The persistence of any Western Canadian ridge during the next several weeks is what we are looking at to better judge how the early winter weather pattern will evolve across Canada.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@telventdtn.com

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