Ag Weather Forum

Favorable Row-Crop Harvest Outlook

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Corn and soybean harvest weather issues appear to be very few entering the fall season. (DTN photo by Elaine Shein)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Late-summer weather stress has been replaced by mostly benign conditions in the Corn Belt, and that means a favorable scenario for corn and soybean harvest for 2013.

"I am cautiously optimistic. It does appear that an open fall is setting up with warmer-than-normal temperatures in general and below normal mostly regarding rainfall," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino.

Palmerino noted that a powerful, hot, late-summer high pressure cell has weakened and allowed a milder weather pattern to move into the central U.S. But, at the same time, upper atmosphere features over the far northern latitudes have also been favorable for temperatures. "High latitude (high pressure) blocking is still clearly over Siberia on the other side of the North Pole," Palmerino said.

This mild start to the harvest season has several implications for the grain markets, according to DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom.

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"If weather allows harvest to move quickly, it will first of all answer the much-debated question regarding yield and will also remove the frost threat for the most part," Newsom said. "An answer to the yield question could actually prove to be the catalyst that sparks a rally in soybeans, and maybe corn. As far as frost is concerned, that is simply fading away as another non-issue."

Recent chilly nights in the Great Lakes do not, in Palmerino's view, indicate the development of a widespread frost event for the Corn Belt in general.

"We've had a cold shot or two for the Great Lakes. This is typical, but the Lakes area is not generally a source region for significant cold outbreaks," Palmerino said. "If this pattern keeps up, we would be looking at the first freezes in the eastern belt versus the western belt. But, the impact would be very limited, because the Eastern Corn Belt has had the most advanced progress all season."

Palmerino is also not ruling out some benefit to soybeans from recent rainfall in mid-September. "We saw half the (soybean) crop still not turning color, let alone dropping leaves," Palmerino said. "There is the chance that rain improved those soybean yields."

Meanwhile, Pacific Ocean conditions remain in a "neutral" phase. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures logged by Palmerino had an average value of a half-degree Celsius below average in August and a minus-two-tenths-degree Celsius below average trend in the first half of September. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts a continuation of neutral conditions in the Pacific through the end of the year -- in other words, neither El Nino nor La Nina are likely to be in effect.

With the Pacific in neutral, Mike Palmerino is closely watching the developments with northern-latitude high-pressure formation. While that feature is most prominent over Russia, he said the potential is there for the high to switch its focus to the North America side of the North Pole -- in which case, the impact on harvest conditions would be profound.

"I am nervous regarding the blocking high issue. Whatever transpires there will ultimately determine the fall pattern," Palmerino said.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

(ES/AG)

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<a href="http://www.pegasusics.com/who-we-are/our-team/charles-smith.php">Charles</a> <a href="https://plus.google.com/104703404369531772964?rel=author">Smith</a>
9/28/2013 | 9:08 AM CDT
After a cool summer, we the corn crop was behind due to a relatively low value of degree days. Sunny, warm weather since has brought the corn and soybean crop to good condition in my area of the country.