Ag Weather Forum

OMAHA (DTN) -- Following a spring and summer that saw conditions change from very wet to very dry in much of the Midwest, any big improvement in those drought conditions is unlikely. That's the takeaway message from a NOAA Central Region Drought Outlook webinar Thursday.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey noted that, following a resurgence of drought in "a good chunk of the Corn Belt," as of mid-September, more than 50% of the U.S. corn area is now experiencing drought, with drought coverage in corn-growing sectors as high as 92% in Minnesota. Corn area in drought had a low of 17% coverage in July.

"We've seen a steady decline in corn condition the past five years, after a perfect 2009," Rippey said. "2013 is running a close parallel to 2011, which was not a very good year."

Rippey highlighted similar issues in soybeans. "Currently, 45% of the U.S. soybean area is in drought," he said. "Soybean drought area had a low of 8% back in July." As with corn, soybean seasonal conditions have not been able to duplicate those of the "perfect" 2009. "2013 is even more troubling [for beans] than corn due to the late-developing drought," he said.

Overall in the central region, the Midwest has had a degradation (worsening) of drought conditions during the past three months, according to Kentucky state climatologist Stuart Foster. On the other hand, Foster cited some recent improvement in drought in the western Plains due to late-season rain, including the record flooding rains in Colorado the week of Sept. 9-16.

But Midwest dryness is a key development. "Dryness in the Midwest is intensifying rapidly," Foster said. "We see a bull's eye for below-normal precipitation in the past 30 days through Missouri and Iowa into Minnesota."

Both experts see little change in drought conditions during the fall season.

"The forecast is very uncertain," Foster said. "The ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) forecast is neutral, which forces the outlook into climatology ranges October through December. Seasonal drought is likely to persist in the west and north Midwest and the western and southwestern Plains."

USDA's Rippey said a neutral Pacific Ocean regime may lead to greater influence from more intermediate features like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the past spring, a persistently-negative NAO is credited with helping to bolster heavy Midwest rains.

"We may see a more negative NAO in the next couple weeks," Rippey said. "This feature in the absence of ENSO can be big."

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

(AG/CZ)

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