Ag Weather Forum

Rain Redevelops in the Western Canada Grain Belt

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The weather so far this week has featured areas of mostly scattered light showers with some locally heavier in the Canadian Prairies spring wheat and canola areas. Temperatures have varied somewhat with some warm and some cool conditions in the region. The final planting effort may have been allowed to continue for some while others have experienced delays.

A new rain and thunderstorm system is currently moving over Alberta and western Saskatchewan crop areas, while areas to the east remain drier and are somewhat warmer than normal. This disturbance is expected to make slow progress through the central and east areas today, tonight and during Friday. An upper level disturbance trailing behind the surface low will continue the chance for light rain and drizzle through central and southeast areas into Saturday. We may also see some windy conditions at that time. Temperatures turn lower in western areas early in this period and in the east later. Wet weather and wet conditions will likely delay the final planting effort, especially through parts of west and north Saskatchewan where the rainfall will be heaviest and the wet weather lasts longer.

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The wet weather pattern looks to continue during the next seven to 10 days. We see significant upper level and surface troughs moving in off the Pacific across the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S before lifting northward into the Canadian Prairies crop region. This track allows for some warmer weather ahead of each disturbance, but it is also potentially fairly wet. Rains will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing crops but there is some risk of significant flooding. Cooler conditions should not be as much of a problem as it was earlier in the spring, but the cool weather could still, at times, slow crop development.

This type of weather pattern has the potential to cause problems down the road for crops in the area. It could promote more disease and it may increase the risk of damage due to early cold weather in the fall. However, it is still early in the season and there is still time for this weather pattern to change.

The keys to the Canadian Weather pattern so far have been a high latitude blocking ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada that forces the storm track southward and a weak to moderate subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. region that holds this storm track just south of the Canadian Prairies, rather than letting it move well south of the area. We will watch these two areas to see if one of the other weakens. This would signal a change in the weather pattern.

(ES/)

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