Ag Policy Blog

Feeding World Requires Better Land Management

Todd Neeley
By  Todd Neeley , DTN Staff Reporter
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To meet a growing demand to feed the world a new study from the Council for Agricultural Science and Technology said U.S. farmers won't be able to meet that demand by simply expanding the number of harvested acres.

A new CAST issue paper "Food, Fuel and Plant Nutrient Use in the Future" said U.S. producers will need to take a closer look at how they are using available land.

"Current conditions and future trends show that adequate food production will require increases in the use of fertilizer nutrients," the paper said.

"With a growing population, dwindling arable land, and an increased demand for biofuels, the world cannot count on an expansion of harvested area to fill the demands. Scientists and food producers need to look at the way land is currently used to feed the world's growing population and look into the best practices for how to move forward."

The CAST paper said the best way to meet expanding food demands will come through the use of genetics to improve crop productivity, promote soil conservation and management, and use nutrients efficiently.

"The key to these endeavors lies in supporting research and development in these areas," the paper said.

The study said grain production will need to increase by about 50% in the next 40 years.

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"Current U.S. growth rates in cereal yields should meet 2050 demands, but greater cereal yields per unit land area require increases in fertilizer nutrient use, advances in genetics, and improved soil and crop management technologies," CAST said in the paper.

The study said when it comes to future land competition from biofuels, land availability is not a constraint to biofuel production.

"The United States has the capabilities to decrease dependency on imported oil. Efficient land use is a key, and cover crops will play a significant part in this process," the paper said.

The removal of the three primary plant nutrients—nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in the U.S. "has been increasing, and there is a need for increased fertilizer use and more recovery and recycling from farm and nonfarm systems."

As agriculture continues to improve nutrient-use efficiency demand for more nutrients will moderate, the study said.

"Future food, fiber, and fuel demands will not be met by expanding cropland area," the paper said.

The study said per capita consumption is projected to stabilize during the next 40 years and diet composition will "change substantially."

"World consumption of cereals for food is not projected to increase over current levels; per capita consumption of animal products (meat and dairy), however, will expand by more than 30% from current consumption levels through 2050," the paper said.

"Cereal consumption will increase by approximately 10% during the same time period, which represents an increase in cereals used for feed grain. In developed countries, per capita consumption of food cereals is expected to remain at current levels, but consumption of animal products will exhibit a modest 8% increase during the next 40 years.

"Total cereal consumption in developed countries will increase by 12.5%, most of which represents an increase in cereals used for animal feed. In contrast, substantial changes in diet will continue to occur in developing countries."

Though per capita cereal consumption for food is expected to remain stable, "consumption of animal products will increase by 70% from current levels to those expected in 2050.

"Per capita cereal consumption for all uses will increase approximately 17%, which again reflects additional use of cereals for animal feed. Most of the increase in consumption of animal products is related to increased meat consumption in China, India, and several other countries in South and East Asia."

With global cereal grain production expected to increase by 50% in the next four decades, the report said U.S. cereal production should increase by at least 50% as well by 2050.

"Obviously, many factors influence commodity import-export projections; it is likely, however, that the dominant role of the United States in meeting world cereal grain demand will continue," the study said.

Download the full CAST report here, http://tinyurl.com/….

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