DTN Weekly Distillers Grains Update

Ethanol Companies Receive Extension on Deadline

OMAHA (DTN) -- The U.S. Grains Council and the three ethanol producers chosen by China to fill out lengthy questionnaires have been granted a one-week extension by China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC).

According to Tom Sleight, president and chief executive officer of the U.S. Grains Council, the three mandatory respondents and the Council, which has also prepared a response to the investigations, received a one-week extension, and will be sending in the required responses early next week.

The People's Republic of China announced on Jan. 12 it had initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations to study whether U.S. agricultural policies, mainly agricultural subsidies, in some way create unfair competition.

At the onset of the investigation, the MOC required U.S. companies exporting DDGS to China to fill out two questionnaires. After the Council helped facilitate a unified industry response, a total of about 80 companies complied.

Since it is not feasible for China to investigate 80 companies, three companies were chosen that were deemed to be the most representative of the trade with China, as well as companies that differ in size and in volumes of exports.

Then Chinese officials selected Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Big River Resources LLC and Marquis Energy LLC have been chosen for sampling as part of the anti-dumping investigation.

The sampling involves a lengthy, time-consuming questionnaire that must be filled out and returned within about 30 days. Sleight said the questionnaires are very extensive, time-consuming and are a huge undertaking for the companies chosen.

The Council has been using a law firm that is expert in such trade cases, and the three companies chosen for sampling will choose their own firm to assist them in responding.

HURRY UP AND WAIT

After China receives the responses, the waiting game begins.

Sleight said that several things could happen. Obviously, the MOC will take some time to analyze the responses from the respondents and the council. After that, the MOC could ask for more responses if they have additional questions. It would also be likely that a time from China would visit the three ethanol producers in U.S. to verify their responses.

"Or they could do anything they want to," Sleight said. "Normally what they do is ask for supplementary questions or make a visit, that's kind of the normal way of doing things. But this particular case has varied from the norm."

Sleight said there has no communication or indications from the MOC as to what their decision might be on the investigation.

EXPORTS TO CHINA CONTINUE

He added that DDG sales to China have still continued at a slow pace, but seem to have been picking up recently.

"U.S. sellers and Chinese buyers have been waiting for the decision, and some feel the decision is still a while off," he said. "But sales have picked up to China in the past few weeks."

After exports in general slowed down in recent weeks due to shortness in containers availability, merchandisers told DTN this week that exports were on the upswing with buyers pushing to get product shipped by the Middle of May. There has been a lot of talk about people buying vessels for China for DDG.

The DTN Weekly DDG Spot Price Average rose sharply this week, from $116 per ton last week to $123 this week, the hike was caused largely by the upswing in exports, along with rallies in corn/soybean meal prices and slight shortness in supplies due to some of the large plants shutting down for scheduled spring maintenance.

Cheryl Anderson can be reached at cheryl.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Cheryl Anderson on Twitter @CherylADTN

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IN THE NEWS

Report Predicts Expanded Grains, DDGS Exports to Colombia

A recent report predicts demand in growth for U.S. grains and DDGS in Colombia and Peru.

By Cheryl Anderson

DTN Staff Reporter

Colombia has to potential to significantly expand its demand for U.S. coarse grains and ethanol co-products, according to an article by the U.S. Grains Council (http://bit.ly/…).

The Council recently released its Colombia 2030 Report (http://bit.ly/…) which examines market potential in Colombia and Peru.

The report predicts a bullish outlook for increasing exports to Colombia. Corn exports alone are projected to reach as much as 5.5 million metric tons in by 2020 and 7.8 mmt by 2030.

This increase will largely be driven by Colombia's livestock sector, as the report predicts an increase of more than 50% in output by 2030. Another factor in the region's increase in demand is its lackluster crop production which is expected to further decrease, forcing producers to be more dependent on feed imports.

USGC President and CEO Tom Sleight, said that the Council is committed to growth in Colombia's livestock and feed sectors.

"Our meetings in Colombia were focused on building alliances that are necessary to addressing trade barriers, improving production efficiencies, building capacity for U.S. coarse grain exports and advancing food security in Colombia," he said.

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DTN WEEKLY DDG SPOT PRICES

CURRENT PREVIOUS
COMPANY STATE 4/22/2016 4/15/2016 CHANGE
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Missouri Dry $135 $130 $5
Modified $65 $63 $2
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois Dry $140 $123 $17
Indiana Dry $130 $118 $12
Iowa Dry $125 $112 $13
Michigan Dry $130 $121 $9
Minnesota Dry $115 $110 $5
North Dakota Dry $115 $110 $5
New York Dry $135 $123 $12
South Dakota Dry $115 $110 $5
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
Kansas Dry $125 $125 $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
Indiana Dry $118 $112 $6
Iowa Dry $120 $110 $10
Michigan Dry $112 $109 $3
Minnesota Dry $115 $106 $9
Missouri Dry $135 $128 $7
Ohio Dry $122 $114 $8
South Dakota Dry $117 $114 $3
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas Dry $127 $127 $0
Wet $50 $50 $0
Illinois Dry $133 $130 $3
Nebraska Dry $127 $127 $0
Wet $50 $50 $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
Illinois Dry $130 $123 $7
Indiana Dry $125 $117 $8
Iowa Dry $115 $112 $3
Michigan Dry $125 $120 $5
Minnesota Dry $112 $110 $2
Nebraska Dry $125 $120 $5
New York Dry $135 $125 $10
North Dakota Dry $125 $120 $5
Ohio Dry $120 $118 $2
South Dakota Dry $115 $110 $5
Wisconsin Dry $120 $115 $5
Valero Energy Corp., San Antonio, TX (402-727-5300)
Indiana Dry $125 $113 $12
Iowa Dry $115 $110 $5
Minnesota Dry $115 $107 $8
Nebraska Dry $125 $120 $5
Ohio Dry $130 $118 $12
South Dakota Dry $110 $105 $5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California Dry $185 $178 $7
*Prices listed per ton.
Weekly Average $123 $116 $7
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

*The spot prices gathered by DTN are only intended to reflect general market trends and may vary. Please contact individual plant or merchandiser for exact prices.

If you would be willing to take a weekly phone call and have your distiller grains spot prices listed in this feature, please contact Cheryl Anderson at (308) 224-1527 or (800) 369-7875, or e-mail cheryl.anderson@dtn.com.

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VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price: Quote Date Bushel Short Ton
Corn 4/22/2016 $3.7175 $132.77
Soybean Meal 4/22/2016 $311.70
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price $123.00
DDG Value Relative to: 4/22 4/15 4/8
Corn 92.64% 86.84% 89.85%
Soybean Meal 39.46% 39.99% 43.48%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG $4.92 $4.64 $4.64
Soybean Meal $6.56 $6.11 $5.62
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices taken from DTN Market Quotes. DDG
price represents the average spot price from Midwest
companies collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal
cost per unit of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5.
DDG cost per unit of protein is cost per ton divided by 25.

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USDA MARKET NEWS/DISTILLER GRAINS PRICES

USDA WEEKLY DISTILLERS GRAINS SUMMARY (Apr 15, 2016)

Dried Modified Wet
FOB PLANT PRICES PER TON
Iowa 105.00-120.00 55.00-60.00 35.00-38.00
Minnesota 105.00-115.00 55.00 34.00-40.00
Nebraska 115.00-135.00 56.00-70.00 44.00-52.00
South Dakota 102.00-124.50 56.00-67.00 35.00-43.00
Wisconsin 115.00-125.00 50.00-60.00 NQ
Eastern Corn Belt 110.00-130.00 60.00-63.00 NQ
Kansas 130.00-145.00 NQ 45.00-54.00
Northern Missouri 123.00-130.00 63.00 40.00-49.00
DELIVERED PRICES PER TON
CIF NOLA 135.00-145.00
Pacific Northwest 165.00-176.00
California 168.00-175.00
Texas Border (metric ton) 180.00-192.00
Lethbridge AB n/a
Chicago 125.00-135.00

Dried Distillers Grain: 10% Moisture

Modified Wet Distillers: 50-55% Moisture

Wet Distillers Grains: 65-70% Moisture

CALIFORNIA WHOLESALE FEEDSTUFF PRICES (Tue Apr 19, 2016)

Distillers Dry Grains

  Rail to California Points          170.00           unch-dn 2.00
  FOB Truck to California Points     174.00-185.00    unch-up 5.00

PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEEKLY FEEDSTUFFS (Tue Apr 19, 2016)

Offers for Distillers Dried Grains delivered by rail to feed mills in the Pacific Northwest were steady to 3.00 higher from 171.00-180.00. Offers for distillers dried grains trans-loaded onto trucks and delivered to Willamette Valley dairies were also steady to 3.00 higher from 189.00-195.00.

*All prices quoted per ton unless otherwise noted.

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NASS/USDA MONTHLY CO-PRODUCTS PRODUCTION

Dry and Wet Mill, Co-products and Products Produced - United States

January 2016 - February 2016

April 1, 2016

Highlights:

Dry mill co-product production of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) was 1.80 million tons during February 2016, down 4 percent from January 2016 but up 11 percent from February 2015. Distillers wet grains (DWG) 65 percent or more moisture was 1.25 million tons in February 2016, down 5 percent from January 2016 and down 2 percent from February 2015.

Wet mill corn gluten feed production was 312.0 thousand tons during February 2016, down 3 percent from January 2016 but up 10 percent from February 2015. Wet corn gluten feed 40 to 60 percent moisture was 277.4 thousand tons in February 2016, down 5 percent from January 2016 but up 1 percent from February 2015.

Co-products and Products Jan 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016
Dry Mill tons
Condensed distillers solubles (CDS-syrup) 128,0271 133,919 122,291
Corn oil 95,268 124,541 123,806
Distillers dried grains (DDG) 405,025 383,131 367,436
Distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) 1,622,467 1,869,722 1,795,472
Modified distillers wet grains (DWG) <65% moisture 1,268,244 1,311,155 1,247,751
Modified distillers wet grains (DWG) 40-64% moisture 418,698 449,256 401,370
Wet Mill
Corn germ meal 48,546 63,787 65,123
Corn gluten feed 283,990 321,956 312,012
Corn gluten meal 80,955 87,266 83,643
Corn oil 41,020 445,976 46,490
Wet corn gluten feed 40-60% moisture 274,763 291,882 277,434

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DDG LINKS/RESOURCES

National Organizations:

Distillers Grains Technology Council (www.distillersgrains.org)

Renewable Fuels Association (www.ethanolrfa.org)

U.S. Grains Council (www.grains.org)

National Corn Growers Association (www.ngfa.org)

American Feed Industry Association (www.afia.org)

Government/Regulatory:

National Grains and Feed Association (www.ngfa.org)

Association of American Feed Control Officials (www.aafco.org)

USDA Animal Feed Safety System (http://1.usa.gov/…)

USDA Food Safety Modernization Act (http://1.usa.gov/…)

University Websites:

Corn Processing Coproducts Manual, Nebraska Corn Board and Nebraska Corn Board and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources Agricultural Research Division Cooperative Extension Division (http://bit.ly/…)

University of Minnesota Biofuels Coproducts in Animal Feed (www.biofuelscoproducts.umn.edu)

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DDG CONFERENCES

*Distillers Grains Technology Council Inc.'s 20th Annual Distillers Grains Symposium

The Distillers Grains Technology Council will hold its 20th Annual Distillers Grains Symposium on May 18-19, 2016 at the Hyatt Regency at The Arch in St. Louis, Missouri. For information, contact the DGTC office at (515) 294-4019 or (800) 759-3448, or check the DGTC website (http://www.distillersgrains.org).

(If you are sponsoring or know of any event, conference or workshop on distillers grains, and would like to list it in the DTN Weekly Distillers Grains Update, please contact Cheryl Anderson (see contact info below).

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We welcome any comments/suggestions for this feature. Please let us know what information is valuable to you that we could include in the Distillers Grains Weekly Update. Please feel free to contact Cheryl Anderson at (402) 364-2183, or e-mail cheryl.anderson@dtn.com.

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