OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue their pattern of mostly higher prices the first week of December 2018, according to prices tracked by DTN.
Five of the eight major fertilizers are slightly higher, but none had a noteworthy price move compared to last month. Potash had an average price of $369 per ton, up $1/ton; urea was $3/ton higher at $410/ton; anhydrous was $7/ton more expensive at $524/ton; UAN28 saw a $4/ton increase to $249/ton; and UAN32 prices, at $293/ton, were $6/ton higher.
Two fertilizers were slightly lower than last month, but the price change was fairly subdued. DAP had an average price of $501/ton, down $5/ton while 10-34-0 was $1/ton cheaper at $457/ton.
MAP prices were unchanged from last month at $529/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.45/lb.N, anhydrous $0.32/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.46/lb.N.
All eight of the major retail fertilizer prices are now higher compared to last year with prices shifting higher in recent months. Potash is 8% more expensive, MAP is 12% higher, 10-34-0 is 13% more expensive, DAP is 14% higher, UAN28 is 16% more expensive, UAN32 is 17% higher, urea is 19% more expensive and anhydrous is now 24% higher compared to last year.
I attended the 2018 Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference in Jacksonville, Florida, last month where various speakers shared insight into what is happening with fertilizer capacity, production, demand and prices, while also giving outlooks for 2019.
Alistair Wallace, a fertilizer analyst for London-based Integer Research Ltd., told attendees that, based on pure capacity and demand forecast, the nitrogen market looks oversupplied. However, other factors like plant closures, Chinese policy changes and United States sanctions on Iran could make the nitrogen market much tighter.
Wallace said the demand growth for urea has slowed in recent years for many reasons, including supply constraints. Chinese nitrogen manufacturers are idling nitrogen plants to meet changing environmental regulations to limit emissions, and this is predicted to continue for coming years.
You can see the whole story on the nitrogen market at https://www.dtnpf.com/….
As for phosphorous, the global market appears to be well-balanced heading in 2019, but there are signs pointing to possible supply issues, with China's environmental regulations potentially having an impact on production and exports.
Mike Rahm, vice president of market and strategic analysis for The Mosaic Company, still sees phosphorous shipments growing.
"Excluding China, demand increased 5.0% or 2.5 million metric tons in 2017," Rahm said during his speech. "We project shipments outside of China will increase 2.8% for 1.5 mmt this year."
The whole story about phosphorous can be found at https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Despite global potash prices at the highest level in three years, the market outlook is for more capacity than new demand, according to Humphrey Knight, potash analyst for CRU International Ltd. in London. He said that potash became more affordable in mid-2016, and thus led to record 2017 global demand.
The U.S. is one of the areas seeing increased use of potash with applications on corn up by 24% and soybean applications 18% higher from 2012 to 2017.
"Fall application pushed 2017 demand to a record high, with 2018 demand currently following closely," Knight said.
However, he explained the role China and India are playing in the market, and what are some of the internal supply issues affecting potash capacity, including in Canada.
You can find those details at https://www.dtnpf.com/….
During the rest of December, DTN will share more insight into what is happening with fertilizer internationally as the Global Fertilizer Outlook series continues.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.
|Dec 4-8 2017||438||471||343||344|
|Jan 1-5 2018||452||490||345||350|
|Jan 29-Feb 2 2018||458||492||344||355|
|Feb 26-Mar 2 2018||461||497||346||361|
|Mar 26-30 2018||470||506||350||370|
|Apr 23-27 2018||485||504||353||367|
|May 21-25 2018||483||504||354||364|
|Jun 18-22 2018||485||505||354||364|
|Jul 16-20 2018||486||505||354||366|
|Aug 13-17 2018||487||508||356||363|
|Sep 10-14 2018||491||518||362||380|
|Oct 8-12 2018||501||523||365||393|
|Nov 5-9 2018||506||529||368||407|
|Dec 3-7 2018||501||529||369||410|
|Dec 4-8 2017||404||424||215||251|
|Jan 1-5 2018||409||474||219||256|
|Jan 29-Feb 2 2018||415||491||227||261|
|Feb 26-Mar 2 2018||416||496||233||279|
|Mar 26-30 2018||425||507||237||272|
|Apr 23-27 2018||431||507||241||277|
|May 21-25 2018||439||504||241||276|
|Jun 18-22 2018||440||503||242||277|
|Jul 16-20 2018||442||503||243||279|
|Aug 13-17 2018||446||481||233||271|
|Sep 10-14 2018||449||487||238||278|
|Oct 8-12 2018||452||488||238||280|
|Nov 5-9 2018||458||517||245||287|
|Dec 3-7 2018||457||524||249||293|
Russ Quinn can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN
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