DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada and another moving through the ridge into the Southwest. The Southwestern trough will slowly move eastward over the next few days while another moves in to take its place midweek. Only part of that trough will move eastward later this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Eventually, a larger trough will move through western Canada early next week and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. While a larger trough will push through the continent, it is likely to be a brief event. However, a Canadian trough is likely to linger into midmonth and may influence northern areas.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

All the activity will continue to produce waves of precipitation across the middle of the country this weekend and next week. Though temperatures are likely to be above normal into early next week, the coming trough should bring through a burst of colder air for the second half of next week, probably after a larger storm system moves through with mixed precipitation.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...101 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...25 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ESTCOURT STATION, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...LOUISVILLE, KY 0.49 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada and another moving through the ridge into the Southwest. The Southwestern trough will slowly move eastward over the next few days while another moves in to take its place midweek. Only part of that trough will move eastward later this week.

Eventually, a larger trough will move through western Canada early next week and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. While a larger trough will push through the continent, it is likely to be a brief event. However, a Canadian trough is likely to linger into mid-month and may influence northern areas.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

All the activity will continue to produce waves of precipitation across the middle of the country this weekend and next week. Though temperatures are likely to be above normal into early next week, the coming trough should bring through a burst of colder air for the second half of next week, probably after a larger storm system moves through with mixed precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A couple of systems will move around the region this week, but we could see a system bring a mix of rain and snow to the southeast on Friday. A very active weather pattern is forecast to continue next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind a strong front midweek.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is generally low across most of the region, despite no drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. The region is going to be very busy, however, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into next week. Eastern areas are favored, which could result in flooding and severe weather throughout the rest of the week. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting. Warmer temperatures are moving in and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain throughout the week and weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome. A couple of stronger systems are looking likely for next week as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the Plains and Midwest, aiding the rivers, but precipitation will likely be limited until a front moves through this weekend. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has moved to northern areas, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country will be drier this week, but showers should start to fill back in this weekend. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. This week, a couple of fronts will move through, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Temperatures will be cooler this week, however, limiting overall stress.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather over the weekend has been a continuation since last week, which is actually preferred after a very wet pattern in the first two months of winter. However, another system is moving into Spain, bringing showers into the western Mediterranean throughout the week. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been frequent during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. However, the region will see multiple cold fronts this week and next, which should reinforce some cooler air, but only bring through limited precipitation.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A stalled front produced heavy rainfall in the southeast over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also producing some areas of flooding. The front is finally forecast to move out of the country on Tuesday with drier weather taking over into next week. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March. One in particular could spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited over the past few months. Southern areas did get some good rainfall over the weekend and a few fronts should continue that this week.

Drier weather in the north is not a huge concern at the moment, but some additional moisture will be needed once wheat and canola awaken from dormancy over the next several weeks.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially south.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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