Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued rain in the Southeast U.S., increasing showers next week in the Plains, and continued dryness to start South American spring planting are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WARMTH, FEW SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

The remnants of Hurricane Francine will spread some showers through the western half of the Midwest through the weekend. Precipitation would help bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but may also disrupt early harvest. Scattered showers are possible next week with a cold front approaching from the West, but eastern areas may remain mostly dry as drought continues to increase there.

SHOWERS FORECAST TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some drier areas in the Central and Southern Plains could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. Rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week that may linger later in the week. That could help increase soil moisture, but delay dry down of corn and soybeans as well as the harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures in the Northern Plains will be well above normal into much of next week. A system brought scattered showers into the region Thursday with some showers lingering through the weekend. Another system will develop similarly early to mid-next week with more widespread precipitation that could linger longer next week and bring some needed rain to corn and soybean areas in the east that are still behind developmentally. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

FRANCINE CONTINUES SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Hurricane Francine has dumped a lot of rain in the Delta this week, helping reduce drought, but also causing some areas of wind damage and flooding. Though the rain will help water levels on the Mississippi River and reduce some of the drought that has been increasing in recent weeks, it will also cause delays to harvest and produce some potential quality issues. Showers last well into next week as the remnant low meanders about the region.

HEAVY RAIN FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A large system is producing heavy rainfall in western areas of the Canadian Prairies, which continue Friday. Another system will do something similar for the middle of next week and its front could linger and continue to produce showers for eastern areas later next week. Though the rain is fine for reducing drought and increasing soil moisture for next year, it will cause delays and potential quality issues for crops that remain out in the fields.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

A front will linger around southern Brazil into the weekend with areas of scattered showers and pockets of heavy rain. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul to improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall in Argentina from the midweek front was spotty. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. Above-normal temperatures have been aiding the reduction of soil moisture as well. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week, but there is uncertainty in the coverage of the showers with this system.

COLD AND WET IN EUROPE

Scattered showers in Europe have been favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. A system in southern Europe will continue to spin and bring showers there and across eastern Europe into next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures have dropped significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions. Another system is forecast to gently move through the continent later next week with another round of widespread lighter showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have been seeing scattered showers as systems from central Europe nudge east. That continues through the weekend. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, have had very little rainfall out of it, which continues to be the case over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in October or early November.

DRIER NOW IN AUSTRALIA

A midweek system produced spotty rainfall in eastern Australia, which was beneficial for winter wheat and canola areas that actually saw some rainfall, but not beneficial for those that missed out. A front will push through the southeast this weekend, but precipitation will largely remain confined to coastal areas. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through early next week. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the end of next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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