Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall for the Southern Delta and Southeast, spotty showers and warm conditions across the Corn Belt, and dry conditions across central Brazil and Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

REMNANTS OF FRANCINE TAGGING THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST LATER THIS WEEK

Temperatures will remain on the warm side through the upcoming weekend and induce stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. Remnants of Hurricane Francine will move into the Central Mississippi Valley Thursday and could move into southern portions of the region through Friday. Precipitation from Francine would help bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but could disrupt the early harvest. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain. Spotty showers are possible next week with a cold front approaching from the West, but some areas may remain mostly dry.

SPOTTY SHOWERS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains Thursday, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week. By late this week and into much of next week, temperatures will climb above normal for the Southern Plains while remaining above normal for the Central Plains. For those with fieldwork to do, they may have to dodge showers next week. But for areas that miss out on the showers, it will not be favorable for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

PERIODIC SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will be well above normal through the rest of this week and into much of next week. A system will move into the region Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas early to mid-next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

FLOODING RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN DELTA AS REMNANTS OF FRANCINE SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH

Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern Louisiana Wednesday evening and provided heavy rainfall, gusty winds, thunderstorms, and flooding. Remnants of Francine will continue to work north on Thursday and stall out in the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds could cause damage and disrupt harvest, but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again. Scattered showers could continue across the Delta through early next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal across central areas with slightly cooler temperatures in the south.

HARVEST DELAYS POSSIBLE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heat will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks, but a few systems could provide brief cool downs to southern areas at times. A system will develop in the Northern Plains Thursday and will continue to spread rain into the region over the coming days with showers becoming spottier by the weekend. A similar system could do the same early-to-mid next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

STALLED FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK IN ARGENTINA

Rainfall from the mid-week front was spotty. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. There will be a brief break in the above normal temperatures through the end of this week. Towards the second half of the upcoming weekend and into next week, above normal temperatures will return, which will evaporate more moisture out of soils. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week, but there is uncertainty in the coverage of the showers this far out.

SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO WHEAT PLANTING DELAYS IN EUROPE

Scattered showers have been favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. A system has formed in southern Europe and will eventually move into the east late this week. Scattered showers could linger across eastern Europe this weekend into early next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures will drop significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

EASTERN BLACK SEA LARGELY MISSING OUT ON SHOWERS

Western areas have been seeing scattered showers as systems from central Europe nudge east. Another front moving into Europe will have potential for showers in western areas later this week and weekend as well. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, will have very little potential for rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA INTO NEXT WEEK

A mid-week system produced spotty rainfall in the east, which was beneficial for winter wheat and canola areas that actually saw some rainfall but not beneficial for those that missed out. A front will push through the southeast this weekend, but precipitation will largely remain confined to coastal areas. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through early next week. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the middle of next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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