Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dry conditions continuing and heat increasing in the Corn Belt and a dry start to South American spring planting are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD, THEN HOT FOR THE MIDWEST

Dry areas in the Midwest continue to expand. A front moving through Friday is bringing very few showers to cause much of an improvement. But it is bringing in a burst of cooler air. Lows may drop below 40 degrees in some areas this weekend, but frosts are not forecast to occur in any significant way. Temperatures will gradually rise next week and could get hot again by the end of the week. Very dry conditions continue through next week with the next system moving through next weekend. We will also have to watch to see if a tropical system can form in the Gulf of Mexico, and where that might track later next week. Drier conditions are fine for maturing corn and soybeans, but not for the immature crop, which still needs a little more moisture.

DRYNESS WITH INCREASING HEAT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front continues to pass through the Central and Southern Plains on Friday. It is bringing some limited showers but also a burst of cooler air that will last through the weekend. Temperatures should rise next week and could be hot in the north. It will be very dry into next week. Soils would enjoy some more rainfall as winter wheat planting increases over the next few weeks, and the increased heat will not be favorable either. We will watch a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, but that is unlikely to have much of an impact to the region. A system will likely move through next weekend, but shower potential is uncertain.

INCREASING HEAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cool air has filtered into the Northern Plains, which continues in the Dakotas through the weekend. Warmer temperatures in the west will eventually spread across the region next week and it could get very hot next week. The heat could cause an increase in drought. Some showers may be possible late next week or weekend with the next system moving in.

DELTA KEEPING AN EYE ON THE GULF

A stalled front produced some meaningful precipitation near the Gulf this week that extended a bit farther inland on Thursday as well, helping drier soils there but coming too late for many. Soil moisture is still low despite recent rainfall and not good for the final stages of filling. Another front is moving through Friday and Saturday and will wipe out the chances for showers for a few days, bringing a burst of cooler air as well. The front may lift back northward enough to bring more showers to coastal areas next week, and a tropical feature will be watched in the Gulf of Mexico to see if it can develop or not.

HEAT INCREASING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A front swept through the Canadian Prairies this week and has brought a burst of cool air. But temperatures will be rising over the weekend and a return to favorable hot and dry conditions are expected into next week. The next system moves into the region with chances for showers in the middle of next week.

BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

Much of Brazil is extremely dry to start off planting season. Fronts have been bringing showers to the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far south, where soil moisture is better, but have not been able to produce much farther north than that. Central Brazil will need some rain prior to the wet season for planting to begin on time later this month. That prospect is currently very low and wet season rains may even be delayed into October, a bad sign for both the soybean and coming safrinha corn crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Argentina is very dry for developing wheat and too dry for corn planting in most areas. A front brought very limited showers to the north this week, but most areas stayed drier. Another front will do something similar in the middle of next week, with rainfall mostly for northern areas, unfavorable for developing wheat or corn planting.

TWO BIGGER SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system continues to spin in western Europe and bring showers there through the weekend before heading east next week. The rainfall will not be good for any remaining wheat harvest or dry-down for corn. Eastern areas have been very warm and dry lately, fine for maturing summer crops, but not for thinking about early planting for winter crops. The system that moves eastward next week may be more generous to eastern areas and another may follow it for later in the week. That should also bring some cooler air into the west, possibly very cold.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE BLACK SEA REGION

A weak system in the Black Sea has brought very limited showers to the far south over the last week and continues for the next couple of days as well. Any rain is too late for filling corn and sunflowers, which have gone through extensive drought this year, and is not good enough for the start of winter wheat planting either. A system moving through eastern Europe early next week will bring only limited showers into the western portions of the region, though another may follow it for later next week. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean have been and will continue to bring showers through southern Australia through the weekend, but will not bring much rain to New South Wales or Queensland, where some drier soils are. Heat in these areas will instead be an issue with the lower soil moisture. We will be watching for a potential system in the middle of next week that may be more promising for these drier areas and bring in some cooler air.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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