Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heat and dryness in the southern and eastern Corn Belt, recent rain and wind in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, and a cold and dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RAINFALL NOT ENOUGH FOR SOME IN THE MIDWEST

A strong front is moving through the Midwest, bringing scattered showers through Saturday before clearing the region. Showers were widespread Thursday in the west but will be patchier and likely lighter as the front continues east the next 24-36 hours. The front will wipe away the heat that the region has been experiencing this week, though, reducing stress. For areas that do not see much or any rain in the east and south, stress continues to mount and late drought development may take the top off of yields. Another front will come through mid-late next week, but not much rain is forecast with this front. Temperatures will be mild to cool for the next 10 days or so.

HEAT DECREASING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Central and Southern Plains brought scattered showers on Thursday. The front continues south on Friday and settles around Texas for the weekend, where showers may continue into next week, favorable for building lost soil moisture and reducing drought prior to winter wheat planting. Temperatures are dropping significantly behind the front, wiping out the extreme heat of the last few weeks. The mild conditions should last through next week.

DRIER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent showers and severe storms may have caused quality problems and delays for the wheat harvest in the Northern Plains. Drier conditions are settling in behind a front, but a new front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday. Models do not have much precipitation with that front. Temperatures will be up-and-down as systems pass through.

DELTA FINDING NEEDED RAIN

Hot and dry conditions have been an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans in the Delta over the last several weeks and may have significantly impacted yields. But some isolated showers have started to develop ahead of a cold front that will go through the region Friday and Saturday. The front will get stuck across the south this weekend, where it may produce showers into next week. Milder temperatures follow behind the front, though they will still be warm and stressful for filling crops where showers do not occur.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN COMING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES NEXT WEEK

In the Canadian Prairies, a strong front and system brought scattered showers, strong winds, and some severe weather that may have been damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops awaiting harvest. Conditions trend drier for the weekend into early next week while temperatures will be on the rise again. Another system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with potential showers and some elevated winds as well.

BRAZIL VERY DRY TO START PLANTING SEASON

Extremely dry conditions exist in northern and central Brazil, and they would enjoy some rain before the wet season rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region recently, creating some areas of frost that could have been damaging to wheat. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. It should not be cold enough to produce widespread frosts this time around, however. With full-season corn planting starting up in the south, more rainfall would be beneficial but is coming in short and sporadic bursts, which are forecast to continue into September without the rain penetrating very far north where it is needed more.

LIMITED RAIN, COLD IN ARGENTINA AS CORN PLANTING BEGINS

Recent widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina may have been damaging to wheat, or at least slowed down its development. Another burst of cool air will move through behind another front developing Friday and Saturday. The front should produce some rain but will be heavier in the state of Buenos Aires, where soil moisture is better than other areas. Fronts have been frequent, but rain has not. The country remains very dry and could use some rain as spring corn planting starts up.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be very warm for most of Europe. A weak front is producing some limited showers for western areas. Another system looks to impact western areas next week with some good rainfall, but it likely stays hot and dry for most areas through next week, a poor combination for filling corn. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers.

DROUGHT WORSENING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A small system in the Black Sea has brought a few spotty showers to southern areas this week, which may continue into early next week. Otherwise, it continues to be hot and dry through next week. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers, rapidly bringing them to maturity faster than normal.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

Recent scattered showers have supported good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola in most of Australia, though northeastern areas could use more rain. Systems moving through the Southern Ocean will continue to produce some showers across the south but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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