Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Largely dry conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt with increasing temperatures this weekend, showers continuing in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for wheat harvest, and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures are mild in the Midwest, but a warm front lifting into the region will cause them to rise this weekend. The front may produce a few showers, with areas around Illinois and Missouri currently being favored. Otherwise, dry conditions continue for most areas with soil moisture dropping for filling corn and soybeans. A small front will move into the region early next week that may produce some showers. But chances are better later next week with a much stronger system rolling through. That should produce needed rainfall as well as bring in some cooler temperatures.

ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUILDING HEAT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It remains hot in Texas while other areas of the Central and Southern Plains have had a bit of a break. Temperatures will start to rise Friday and likely last into next week, which may cause stress. Only isolated showers are forecast into next week, which could be a stressful combination for those that are hot and dry. A system will move through later next week that could bring some needed rainfall and a burst of cooler air.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Multiple disturbances continue to bring scattered showers for the Northern Plains into next week, which may produce some unneeded rainfall to mature wheat areas and overly wet corn and soybean areas. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat. The region will get cooler and drier after a system passes through midweek.

MOSTLY HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Many areas of the Delta have been dry for weeks, with hot temperatures creating stressful conditions for many of the region's filling soybeans and cotton crops. Temperatures have been milder for the last couple of days but will rise again this weekend. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, continuing the stress.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Disturbances moving through the Canadian Prairies will bring additional showers through the middle of next week, when a stronger system could bring more widespread precipitation as well as a burst of cooler air. Maturing wheat and canola could use some dry conditions for harvest. The rain could be heavy in small locations, which could reduce quality and delay harvest.

ANOTHER COLD SHOT COMING TO BRAZIL

A front has been hanging around in the far southern sections of Rio Grande do Sul, producing some showers. The front will slowly move northward over the weekend and spread showers to more areas of southern Brazil. That would help wheat in that state and prep soils for full-season corn planting. Little or none is forecast for Central Brazil, which would enjoy some early rain prior to soybean planting which cannot start up until September 1 and will likely wait until wet season rains become consistent later in the month. Cold air flooding into the south this weekend into next week could again produce frosts that could be damaging to more advanced wheat.

MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO ARGENTINA

A system in Argentina has been producing spotty precipitation thus far. The system will move northward for Thursday and Friday, but precipitation will be most intense in the far north. The country needs widespread heavy rain for developing wheat and to prep soils for corn planting that begins next month. Cold air moving into the country with the system will lead to more frosts and some freezes, which may be damaging for more advanced wheat in the north.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EUROPE

Recent showers were favorable for southern Europe, especially when dealing with recent heat, but not for northern areas that have been very wet this year. Another system will push into the west this weekend, but precipitation is now forecast to dry up as it moves eastward next week. Temperatures are hot in the southeast. Heat will return to more areas this weekend into next week, being stressful in the south where soil moisture is lower.

DROUGHT WORSENING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Drought continues to increase across eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Other areas in the region have better conditions for filling corn and sunflowers. Limited showers are possible the next couple of days, but a longer dry stretch is forecast through next week. Temperatures remain hot and stressful as well. Constant heat and dryness has been damaging to crops in much of the region this season.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers have been and will continue to move through western and southern Australia for the next week, keeping soil moisture favorable in these areas. Northeastern areas got some needed rain last week, but are drier this week and likely next week as well. These areas could use some more precipitation. Temperatures will stay warm, increasing development of wheat and canola, but possibly drying out areas in the northeast a bit.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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