Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hotter extended forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt, and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MILD TEMPERATURES INCREASING FOR MIDWEST

An upper-level low will be in the Midwest, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday or Thursday though most areas will see light or no rain while only small areas should see moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but pockets of the region will be missed by the incoming rain and could lead to dryness concerns for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, especially with temperatures increasing next week.

DRIER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES RISING

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Central and Southern Plains over the last week, hitting some areas with moderate to heavy rain and completely missing others. An upper-level low pressure system responsible will continue showers Tuesday before moving east. Even with it gone, isolated showers may still form later this week. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide more, though models are focusing efforts to the north and east while keeping much of the region dry. Mild temperatures continue most of this week, gradually moderating closer to or above normal by the weekend and could be hot next week. The situation is fairly positive for most areas of the region currently, but the turn to hotter and drier could start to have an impact on reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASING HEAT

Isolated showers continue in the Northern Plains on Tuesday followed by a few dry days. Heat in Montana will spread eastward this week, although will become less intense as the week wears on. A cold front will move into the region Friday and be slow to move out until early next week. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy or widespread. Another front could produce some showers a day or two later. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans in some areas as well. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but they could use some more rain to go along with it.

RAIN CONTINUES IN DELTA

A front that settled across the southern Delta this weekend should continue to bring showers for most of this week. Northern areas will see pockets of showers move through this week also as an upper-level low slowly moves through. With the flow shifting to the south this weekend, showers probably continue over the weekend into next week. Most areas will see good rain, though southern areas might have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms over the next few days.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the Canadian Prairies and has brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. Disturbances have tried to bring showers through, but with limited success. The ridge will get pushed eastward later this week as a trough moves into British Columbia, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east through the weekend. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend but the region will be on the edge of the ridge next week, which could lead to building heat again, but also the potential for more periods of showers. Models do not have much rain in the forecast, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Limited showers fell in a few spots in Argentina over the weekend, but most winter wheat areas were unfavorably dry. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Some showers will move through southern areas with a front Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern areas will likely have to wait for another front this coming weekend into next week for another chance, but that may come too far north.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to France and Germany over the weekend, unfavorable for winter wheat quality and harvest as well as being too wet for developing corn. The system will continue through eastern areas of the continent over the next day or two where showers will be much more welcome, especially in the southeast areas that have been dealing with frequent hot and dry conditions. Another system is following right behind this one across the continent with more showers through Wednesday as well. Yet another front moves into western areas this weekend with more unneeded showers. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could negatively affect crops there as well. Temperatures will be more moderate this week but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

CONTINUED HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA

A system is bringing scattered showers through the Black Sea region early this week but have been light. Another system moves through the Black Sea this weekend and may catch western and southern areas with showers, but the widespread moderate to heavy rain that the region needs remains elusive. Though not as consistently hot as the last few weeks, near to above normal temperatures will still be stressful for developing corn and sunflowers.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Northeastern Australia could use more rain, but conditions are not critical yet. A front is bringing rain into western areas for Tuesday and skirts through eastern areas later this week. Showers may get into Queensland where they are more needed, but they look more isolated by that point. Several more fronts are lining to move through next week but are favoring western and far southern areas with rain.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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