Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued showers through the Corn Belt, but a somewhat drier look next week, and poor conditions for northwestern Europe and the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Several fronts and systems moving through the Midwest over the next ten days should bring plenty of opportunities for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Models are favoring the western half of the region with the heaviest amounts, which saw some heavier rain Monday night and Tuesday, and includes some flooded areas. Eastern areas are still forecast to see chances for needed rainfall through next week but should be hotter more frequently than those in the west, which may cause some issues if the rain does not materialize.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An active pattern will favor multiple fronts stalling in the Central and Southern Plains, bringing bursts of cooler air behind them and plenty of rain, which should be favorable for developing crops in most areas. Southern areas may catch some rain at times as well. They'll be hot until the weekend, though, as fronts largely stall around Kansas or Oklahoma until then. Drought areas have been receiving a little more consistent rainfall lately, which should help those areas. But some across the south have seen less recently, where drought may start to develop if showers disappoint.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue to move through the Northern Plains into early next week. The frequent passage of storm systems could bring heavier rain through areas in the southeast that don't need it. Temperatures will be near or below normal for the next week, keeping growth slow.

SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures continue to be hot in the Delta, but a front moving through late this week and weekend should produce scattered showers and bring in milder temperatures. Another system should reinforce that front early next week and bring more showers as well. The region will also be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl. It is forecast to move through Mexico or Texas early next week, but the forecast may shift closer to the region, which could mean heavier rainfall.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cooler than normal temperatures will stick around the Canadian Prairies through the weekend. Widespread showers will continue throughout the region into early next week. Showers are more likely to be scattered with limited chances for heavy rain. But areas that may get hit multiple times could see some flooding. That would be exacerbated in areas across the north and east that have had issues with heavy rain in recent weeks. Temperatures should be on the rise by the middle of next week, a needed feature for the crop whose development is behind schedule.

RAIN MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move into southern Brazil on Friday and may stall in some areas going through next week. If it sticks around the same areas, flooding may be possible, which would not be good for winter wheat planting and emergence or transportation, which has had flooding issues over the last two months.

COLD AND DRY ARGENTINA

Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment in most of Argentina. A front moves through later this week, but showers are forecast to develop over the far north for only a couple of days while the primary wheat areas remain dry and get another burst of cold air that may cause frosts, unfavorable for vegetative wheat.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Pockets of heavy rain recently moved through France and Germany where it was not welcome but have also spread to other areas of Europe where it was. Several more systems and fronts will move through for the rest of this week and next, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere. The southeast will be much drier after a system moves through Wednesday. This area has been much hotter recently and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

LIMITED SHOWERS, CONTINUED HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

A front in western Ukraine is bringing showers for the next couple of days but will largely dry out as it gets pushed eastward this weekend with only isolated showers for eastern areas. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Hot temperatures this week and next will only exacerbate the stress on developing summer crops.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Despite drier conditions for most of this week, most areas of Australia are in good shape for vegetative winter wheat and canola. A system may develop some showers across the east this weekend while the next front gets into the west early next week with more. Overall, things are in fair condition, but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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