Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding and additional rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, needed showers through the rest of the Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE RAIN FALLING ON EXPANDING DROUGHT IN THE MIDWEST

Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin and parts of Missouri from rainfall over the last week. Drought may have expanded on the Drought Monitor on Thursday, but did not include rain since early Tuesday, which was substantial in some of these areas. Two more fronts will move through the region going through next week, one Friday through the weekend and another early-to-mid next week, providing some better shower chances across most of the region. The rain should further help with drought conditions. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast for most areas. But northwestern areas would like to see a break and dry conditions, but will have to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through, sometimes with heavy rain that may exacerbate flooding and poor crop conditions.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some areas in the eastern Plains got some needed rain on Wednesday. Another front will move through Thursday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. Another system does something similar early-to-mid next week. The active storm track is favoring northern areas with better chances for widespread rain. Heat will occur south of the fronts coming through and be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota and any new rain will make it worse. Unfortunately, there will be several systems to move through the region through next week that will bring scattered showers. One will move through Thursday and Friday and another moves through early next week. One more may come through at the end of next week. Temperatures will turn much colder for the weekend with a slight risk of frost in some areas where skies clear and winds are calm. Though temperatures will moderate next week, they will still be cooler than normal, and another shot of colder air may move through later next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front that moved through the Delta on Wednesday brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and a slight drop in temperatures, though not all areas saw needed rainfall. The break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again Friday into the weekend. Models are forecasting two fronts to drift into the region next week, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

COLD AIR RETURNING TO CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Several storm systems will move through the Canadian Prairies through next week with scattered showers that will keep soil moisture high and continue potential flood threats in some areas, especially in the north and east with a system Thursday and Friday. Severe weather will also be possible. Temperatures will trend colder behind today's system. Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread. Temperatures will moderate next week, but still be cooler than normal. We may see another burst of cold air later next week as well. Cooler temperatures are not helpful for crop development that is behind due to wetness and previous cold air.

SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some rain got into southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas with a front this week, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will move in for Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an effect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS DRY ARGENTINA

Rainfall deficits continue to build up in Argentina and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. A front later this week will bring some spotty showers, but also a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days. Another likely does the same next week.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in the Mediterranean will continue showers for Italy and southeastern Europe for the next day or two, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent this weekend and next week. France and Germany have gotten a needed break from the rain, but will likely find some pockets of heavy rain moving through again this weekend. Most areas should see lighter rainfall amounts, though.

LIMITED SHOWERS, BUILDING HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

Limited showers have moved through the Black Sea region this week, but rainfall deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Drier conditions are likely next week, though far western areas could see some rain with fronts stalling out briefly in the region. Temperatures will be on the increase over the next few days, especially across Ukraine, getting into western Russia next week. The heat should cause some additional stress to developing corn and sunflowers.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system moved through western Australia with some good rain earlier this week and will get into eastern areas Friday through the weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment in most areas. It may be drier next week, though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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