DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of Canada with a trough in the Northeast and plenty of weaknesses across the U.S. The trough will build back west with a couple of impulses moving over the top of the ridge, expanding the trough and shoving the ridge back to western Canada by the end of the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A more progressive pattern is expected next week that should cause more systems to move through the U.S. for the rest of June.

The U.S. and European models continue to have some key differences in temperatures and now some major differences in precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the American GFS, which tends to fit the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains with cooler conditions elsewhere. The temperature pattern should be more variable next week with systems coming by that will produce scattered showers across more of the country. There is uncertainty whether or not significant precipitation will occur in the Midwest, but the daily showers and thunderstorms that have been occurring in the Plains will shut down.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...27 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...WICHITA, KS 1.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of Canada with a trough in the Northeast and plenty of weaknesses across the U.S. The trough will build back west with a couple of impulses moving over the top of the ridge, expanding the trough and shoving the ridge back to western Canada by the end of the week. That will set up a more progressive pattern that should cause more systems to move through the U.S. for the rest of June.

The U.S. and European models continue to have some key differences in temperatures and now some major differences in precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the American GFS, which tends to fit the upper-air pattern better.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains with cooler conditions elsewhere.

The temperature pattern should be more variable next week with systems coming by that will produce scattered showers across more of the country. There is uncertainty whether or not significant precipitation will occur in the Midwest, but the daily showers and thunderstorms that have been occurring in the Plains will shut down.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers should continue all week long, though the coverage may not be totally favorable. A front will move through Friday into Saturday with scattered showers but clear the region out a bit and bring some briefly cooler temperatures through. Most areas should get a drink, however, favorable for developing crops. The pattern favors more systems moving through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers will continue to develop across the region through the weekend, favoring additional drought reduction, though coverage is not expected to be overly widespread. A front will move through over the weekend and tend to shut down the daily shower and thunderstorm chances. But systems will continue to move through, which will still provide chances for additional rain.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is dropping south through the region over the next few days, which will bring in lower temperatures and some isolated showers mainly for western areas. Another front will move through this weekend with more scattered showers across the region, though not all areas will be hit. Still, it should be the best chances for widespread precipitation eastern areas have had in weeks. The pattern will favor more systems moving through starting next week, which may be more favorable for the drier areas of the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers developed on Monday and will continue through most of the week, which will help to stave off the drop in soil moisture that has been occurring. A front will move through this weekend with better chances for rain, but the pattern will not be favorable for soil moisture improvements afterward though systems may move through more frequently. There is growing concern for dryness in the area.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers will remain in the region for the next two weeks, as fronts move through with more regularity.

Showers may or may not be widespread. Even though fronts and showers will be moving through, temperatures will remain above normal, which is starting to be a concern for areas that are drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Mostly dry conditions continue through the rest of the week, not unusual for this time of year. Conditions are falling toward the end of the season. A front will move into southern areas this weekend with some isolated showers possible. The front may make it into central areas next week.

If so, it would bring a few showers to areas in need, though immature corn is unlikely to gain a benefit in most areas. Cold temperatures that follow will need to be watched to see if frosts will occur. If they do, they could halt late-planted safrinha corn and slow development of wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Several fronts moving through will bring some isolated showers over the next couple of weeks. Soil moisture is still sub-optimal, but the recent run of showers have been helping in some spots. A stronger cold front will move through over the weekend, which may spread frosts and freezes to parts of the region next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been frequent around the Mediterranean for the last couple of weeks, which have been helping drought areas and building soil moisture, but northern areas have been dry and are in need of some additional moisture. Isolated showers may spread northward this week at times, but would be isolated. Coverage may increase this weekend as the pattern starts to change a bit. France and the UK may be in line for better showers for next week, though Germany and Poland may not.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though soil moisture is mostly favorable across the region, some additional showers would be welcome, especially in the east.

Showers will be limited this week, but have already hit the drier east. Shower potential is forecast to increase over the weekend, and possibly next week if an upper low can develop in the region.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/OILSEEDS/CORN/SOYBEANS): The Yangtze River Valley picked up some heavy rainfall over the weekend, which may exacerbate the issues with maturing wheat in the region. A low-pressure system will spin up over the northeast corn and soybean areas through the weekend, favorable for developing crops. Other areas of central China will be drier, unfavorable for crop development there.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers developed over the weekend and another system will move through this week with more rainfall, benefiting wheat and canola establishment while El Nino continues to take form in the Pacific. The event favors hotter and drier conditions in eastern Australia, which may start to impact the country's crops in spring when they emerge from semi-dormancy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.