Commodities Market Impact Weather

Stronger Storm Later This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong, cold system moving through the country later this week, dry conditions and frost risks in Brazil, and a heatwave in western Europe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

STRONGER STORM COMING TO MIDWEST LATE WEEK

Scattered showers and some severe weather went through the Midwest over the weekend. After a quiet day Monday, the rest of the week will be more active, with showers and thunderstorms scattered about the region midweek and a stronger storm system moving through at the end of the week. That last one has the best chance to produce severe weather and organized showers. The rapid planting pace of last week will slow down just a bit due to weather this week. Colder temperatures will move through Friday through the weekend, being coldest across the west going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, though the impact to agriculture will be very low due to the late plantings.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated to scattered showers moved through some of the Southern Plains over the weekend. Showers will happen but only on occasion through the region this week. The driest areas in the southwest will have the least chance for showers, with fairly hot temperatures until the weekend. Stress continues to be high for wheat and for corn and soybeans, where the showers miss this week.

COLD AND WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A cold trough brought more showers and colder temperatures to the Pacific Northwest over the weekend before it left. A ridge there now is only temporary as another cold and wet trough will move through later this week. The showers are benefiting soil moisture, but the cold temperatures are keeping growth slow for wheat.

STRONG, COLD STORM COMING TO NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A disturbance will move through the region with isolated to scattered showers early in the week, but a stronger system will move through with more widespread and heavier showers Thursday and Friday, potentially being cold enough for accumulating snow in some areas. Well below normal temperatures will then be in place going into next week. Some northern frosts will be possible, but the impact to agriculture will be quite low due to the delayed planting. Planting progress continues to be slow which looks to be the case for a while yet.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend, slowing the planting pace a bit, though progress is near average in the region. Some showers may go through at times during the week, but overall, the region will be in a drier stretch. A stronger cold front will move through Friday and Saturday, bringing more organized showers through and also cooler temperatures, which will improve soil moisture and reduce stress in some of the somewhat drier areas across the south.

FROST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system went through southern Brazil over the weekend with widespread showers. The cold front to the system is bringing isolated showers to central areas on Monday, but soil moisture continues to be critical for safrinha corn in the pollination and grain-fill stages of growth. Cold air that is moving in behind the front may lead to some frosts across the southern areas throughout the week, but clouds, winds, and some rainfall could keep temperatures up just enough. If it does get cold enough, it would create significant damage to the crop that is pollinating to filling.

DRYNESS NOT YET CONCERNING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Some spotty showers moved through Argentina on Friday and Saturday, but much of the country remained dry. That promoted additional harvest of corn and soybeans, along with planting of winter wheat. Wheat has seen lower amounts of moisture lately and could use more for good germination.

COOL AND SHOWERY IN BLACK SEA

Colder temperatures are moving through the Black Sea region this week. They may be cold enough to produce some patchy frost at times, more likely on Friday or Saturday than any other day. Still, that would not have much of an impact on corn, maybe on some advanced wheat, though growth has been slower this spring. Periods of showers will come with the colder air throughout the week. It is unlikely to increase soil moisture too much but may allow for some minor improvements in spots.

HEATWAVE CONTINUING IN WESTERN EUROPE

Some isolated showers moved through Europe over the weekend, but dryness remains over the north and portions of the west. Temperatures rose well above normal over the western half of the continent, which will be the case all week long and continue in Spain through next week. Drier areas in the west and north will feel additional stress. Some periodic showers will move through this week, but showers will be more consistent over the east, where soil moisture is much better.

COLD AND WET FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heavy precipitation fell over the eastern Canadian Prairies over the weekend, continuing to keep the eastern half of Saskatchewan and Manitoba too cold and wet for much planting progress to be done. Some showers across the western half of the region benefited soil moisture where drought still exists. A disturbance early this week will bring some isolated showers through the region, but a stronger system later this week will produce more widespread heavy precipitation. That will again be beneficial for western areas while the east will remain too wet. With cold temperatures following the system, that could also lead to some snow accumulation in the east. The colder air will last into next week, continuing to keep soil drainage and subsequent planting slow in eastern areas. The cold will not be good for western areas either, where frosts would be a concern.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick