Commodities Market Impact Weather

Active Two Weeks of Weather

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) --- An active period of weather in the U.S. and favorable rainfall in southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

CONTINUED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, hitting remaining drought areas in the northwest more than elsewhere in the region, a highly beneficial scenario for most areas. A system continues through the region Monday while another system pinwheels through the region Tuesday through Friday. Colder air will move through with this system, which will slow the warming of soils. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more precipitation next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

Some isolated showers moved through the Southern Plains over the weekend but were not very helpful for drought areas. A frontal boundary sagging south through the region will develop a low pressure system on it across Texas on Monday that could provide more beneficial showers for southern drought areas, but will miss most of the HRW wheat areas. A system that moves through on Tuesday will not provide much precipitation either. A pool of colder air moving into the West this weekend could provide northern and eastern areas with better chances for precipitation next week, but southwestern areas are more likely to be missed.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Scattered showers will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday into Tuesday, maintaining or improving soil moisture in drought areas. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week.

INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but some areas were missed. A somewhat larger system will slowly pinwheel through the region this week, offering chances for more widespread precipitation. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more beneficial precipitation next week.

MORE SEVERE STORMS FOR DELTA

Recent precipitation in the Delta has diminished drought across the south and has kept soils wet across the north. Scattered showers will move through in a couple of batches this week, followed by cooler air. Severe storms will be possible Monday night into Tuesday morning across the south. A larger pool of cold air building in the West this weekend may be the cause of some more showers and thunderstorms next week.

DRYNESS CONCERNING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Isolated showers will remain in central Brazil over the next week, but many areas may remain completely dry, drawing soil moisture out when it should be being built up. Safrinha corn will be able to use the available moisture, but this will leave the region more vulnerable if showers do not return before the end of the wet season later this month. More persistent showers will continue through this next week across the south. These areas have had improving soil moisture conditions for early safrinha corn growth, which is favorable.

DRYNESS FOR ARGENTINA

Outside of far northern areas of Argentina, drier conditions are expected for most of the week, with a chance for spotty showers late this week into next week. Rainfall will generally be light and not much help for remaining filling corn and soybeans.

OCCASIONAL BLACK SEA SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, adding to the good precipitation over the winter and favoring wheat that is slowly coming out of dormancy. Though precipitation will be less common this week, a few more chances come by the weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick