DTN Daily Basis Comments

Wednesday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 69 cents over the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 7 cents at $6.20. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 24 cents over the November futures contract and the DTN National Soybean Index was down 34 cents at $13.43. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent weaker at 16 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 4 cents at $6.92. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 1 cent stronger at 13 cents under the September futures contract and the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 2 cents at $9.07.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $6.20 -$0.07 $0.69 Sep $0.008
Soybeans: $13.43 -$0.34 $0.24 Nov $0.001
SRW Wheat: $6.83 -$0.05 -$0.42 Sep -$0.002
HRW Wheat: $6.92 $0.04 -$0.16 Sep -$0.001
HRS Wheat: $9.07 -$0.02 -$0.13 Sep $0.010

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Tuesday is at 69 cents over the September futures, unchanged from Monday's basis. September corn closed down 8 1/4 cents at $5.50 1/2 Tuesday, while December closed down 7 1/2 cents at 5.51 3/4. USDA on Monday said 62% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 1, down two percentage points from last week. Minnesota is at 36%, with South Dakota at 32%; North Dakota is in rough shape at only 18% good to excellent. Wisconsin is 75%, Nebraska is 71%, Illinois is at 68% and Iowa is 62% good to excellent. NASS noted 91% of the U.S. corn crop was silking, ahead of the five-year average and 38% was in the dough stage, slightly ahead of the average. The DTN weather factor for corn is neutral. Gulf corn basis was 5 cents weaker, while river basis continues to pull back the inverse seen at the end of July. Ethanol plant basis is higher in the Upper Midwest and steady elsewhere. There is still nothing happening on the PNW until last-half November, with track shuttle bid at +130Z. Barge freight has been active in the mid-Mississippi corridor as terminals need spot barges to load out recent purchases when they spiked the spot corn basis. The weekly national average corn basis this week at 69 cents over the September is 5 cents weaker than last week and is 95 cents stronger than the DTN five-year average.

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SOYBEAN:

The national average soybean basis for Tuesday is at 24 cents over the November futures, 1 cents stronger than Monday's basis. September soybean futures closed down 32 1/2 cents at $13.23 3/4 Tuesday and November closed down 33 3/4 cents at $13.19 3/4, under pressure from better-than-expected crop ratings. Besides the improvement in U.S. crop ratings, the market is also on the defense as fresh export business from China has slowed considerably versus expectations. Monday's USDA Crop Progress report showed U.S. soybean conditions improving for the week ended Aug. 1, versus trade expectations that conditions would be slightly lower. Lower ratings in nine states including Minnesota, North Dakota and Nebraska, were offset by higher ratings in eight states including Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. September soybean oil closed down 1.26 cents, adding further pressure to the market. The track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents stronger for Sep/Oct/Nov at +155Z and +160Z. Secondary shuttle freight last-half September is bid $150 per car under tariff against offers of $200, while October is bid $500 over tariff against offers of $800. The weekly DTN national average soybean basis at 24 cents over the November is 6 cents weaker than last week and is 87 cents stronger than the DTN five-year average.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Tuesday is at 42 cents under the September futures, unchanged from Monday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Tuesday is at 16 cents under the Kansas City September futures, 1 cent weaker than Monday's basis. September KC wheat closed up 4 cents, leading the wheat complex once again. Cars showing up for sale on the spot KC market were higher with 11.6% up 6 cents and 11.8% up 2 cents as mills look for milling quality blending material. Deferred milling basis has perked up as mills continue to battle competition from the feed market. There is brisk activity in the export market from regular U.S. buyers and others like Algeria, Jordan and Turkey that U.S. wheat will be too expensive to compete.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Tuesday is at 13 cents under the Minneapolis September futures, 1 cent stronger than Monday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were unchanged at +135N, 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +140N, 14% proteins were down 20 cents to unchanged at +130 to +150; 14.5% proteins were down 5 cents at +120; 15% proteins were unchanged at +115N to +170 and 16 proteins were at +115. Receipts were 43 cars, which included zero train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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