Commodities Market Impact Weather

Rain Starting to Move South

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front that continues to produce widespread heavy rainfall across the central U.S. and frosts in southern Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Wednesday.

HEAVY SOUTHERN MIDWEST RAIN

A frontal boundary stalled from northern Missouri to lower Michigan with a zone of moderate to heavy rainfall over the last several days. Other areas in the Midwest have seen scattered, lighter showers. The front will be shifting south over the next couple of days, followed by a drier pattern for the rest of the week and weekend. A frontal boundary may drop into the region next week with some isolated showers, but that is not certain yet.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAINS SOME MORE

Showers have been fairly scattered across the Southern Plains since last week, though there has been a solid zone of heavy rainfall from West Texas through eastern Kansas along a stalled front where amounts have eclipsed 3 inches for most areas, disrupted the winter wheat harvest and caused flooding. This same zone is expected to produce more showers through Thursday before the front finally pushes south through the weekend. Texas may continue to see showers through the weekend with more isolated showers next week.

HOT AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent showers in the Northern Plains have perhaps stabilized poor crop conditions but have not been enough to improve them. Dry conditions with increasing temperatures will put more pressure and stress on developing crops. There is a chance for showers to return next week as a front sags into the region.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

The Delta has been relatively dry over the last week as a front stalled well enough to the north. The front will eventually push through the region Thursday and Friday. Some areas have been happy for the dryness as they continue to recover from flooding and possible replanting. But the showers will help developing cotton and soybeans later this week.

DAILY SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST

Scattered showers will continue in the Southeast through the rest of the week and will be focused as a front moves into the region late this week and weekend. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

HOT AND DRY IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers have moved through the Canadian Prairies since last week, but were very isolated and light. Eastern areas have seen better coverage and amounts while southwestern areas that need more rainfall have seen very little. A front will move through the region this weekend and may produce some showers, mostly across central and northern Alberta.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL FROSTS

Dryness continues to plague corn across the country. Temperatures behind a front that passed through have plummeted with the last two mornings producing frosts in Parana, which may have limited corn production further when combined with the dryness and drought. Wheat areas will be more resilient to the winter fluctuations and conditions are much better for the vegetative crop.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick