DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...128 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...25 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...TAMPA FL 2.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West, a trough in Ontario, and another trough over northern Canada. The Ontario trough will move east through the weekend while the northern trough digs southward into the Central U.S. this the weekend and into next week. This trough will weaken late next week but another could take its place next weekend. There will also be an upper-level low developing off the California coast next week that could send some energy into the country late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be above normal west of the Rockies and near to below normal east. Below normal temperatures will moderate by the end of next week but may fall below normal again next weekend across the North-Central U.S. A frontal boundary will remain around the Gulf Coast next week with periods of showers. There may be another system that moves across the country late next week into next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): High temperatures and nearly no rainfall have worsened drought for much of the region this week. A system moving across the area this weekend will produce scattered showers, but amounts will likely be light to locally moderate and drought will not be reduced. Temperatures will fall below normal, which should help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region. We may see another system late next week, but amounts look light again.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers have been isolated and soil moisture has been drying up over the last week or two. This has promoted favorable conditions for wheat harvest but worsening conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Isolated showers will remain possible over the next couple of days with a better chance as a system moves through this weekend into early next week with a strong cold front. It should provide some beneficial moisture to a few areas along with below normal temperatures for a few days.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered thunderstorms moved through some of the northern drought areas Thursday night into Friday morning, with some good rainfall in a few stripes across Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. A batch of moderate rainfall Friday morning will continue to move southeast through the day but estimates for total rainfall are up to 1 inch when the area needs much more. The front causing the showers will sag southeastward Friday and Saturday, with more stripes of beneficial showers each day, mostly across eastern states. A system will move through Sunday into early next week with more widespread rainfall, but comes with clusters of thunderstorms, which may miss some key areas. The faster movement of the system will make it difficult for rain to pile up for most areas with mostly moderate amounts expected. This will ease some of the drought for some areas but will not be enough to break it. Temperatures will fall below normal for the following several days next week, helping to ease stress across the drought areas. Another system may bring more showers late next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Outside of the draining soils from last week's flooding, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton. A tropical system is forecast to miss the region this weekend, but a frontal boundary is likely to bring rain early next week. It may stall across southern areas with more rain chances through next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton. A tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move through the region Saturday into Monday with heavy rainfall along its path. This could cause localized flooding.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except places that received too much and caused some flooding. More scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend, but temperatures will fall below normal and a couple of frosty mornings may be possible over eastern areas early next week. Another system will bring scattered showers to the area late next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Central areas remain dry, suppressing yield prospects for safrinha corn. A system is expected to impact the southern states yet again Friday and Saturday with scattered showers but will not make it into central states. Another will follow in a similar fashion early next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent dry conditions have favored corn harvest. Even with the drier weather, developing winter wheat is seeing mostly favorable soil moisture. Temperatures behind the front have been below normal, slowing growth on wheat, but temperatures should moderate next week.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): An upper-level low may keep showers going over the Balkans through this weekend, and another system is moving through western areas. The front will not move very far eastward as it will be held up by a dry high pressure over western Russia but could get to eastern areas next week. Heat this week should help to move crops through development while the showers that occur behind it should allow for recovering soil moisture. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable across the continent for developing crops.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An upper-level low that has produced widespread showers over the last seven- to 10-days will move southwest into the Balkans this weekend. It will be replaced by hot high pressure through much of next week, especially in western Russia. The heat may be quite significant with triple-digit readings possible in southern Russia. Heat will reduce topsoil moisture but hasten developing corn and spring wheat, and aid maturing winter wheat.

EASTERN RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Some scattered light showers have fallen in Siberia recently, but dryness has continued to be a concern for most areas. A strong cold front will move through the region through the weekend. Showers may not be overly widespread or heavy, but temperatures should fall below normal, helping to reduce drought stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been highly beneficial for developing wheat and canola across the growing regions. Temperatures are a bit below normal will keep growth a little slower than normal, but soil moisture is still favorable. Another system will move across the country this weekend and next week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue in the northeast for much of the week, providing good soil moisture for developing corn and soybeans in the region, but temperatures will fall below normal for several days, limiting growth. The showers across the North China Plain will disrupt winter wheat and canola harvest.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers continue to develop as the monsoon treks northward through the country, allowing for more planting for cotton and soybeans. Conditions are very favorable for developing crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through early Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north and west through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers north Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday and Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers MGDS Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Isolated showers MGDS Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

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