DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...92 AT BRIGHTON FL

LOW MON...24 BELOW ZERO AT LANGDON ND

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...SHREVEPORT LA 2.23 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A progressive pattern over the next 10 days will see several systems moving through the country.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal in the Central region and near to below normal along all the coasts. The progressive pattern will bring some variable temperatures, but a cool-west and warm-east pattern is expected to develop by the end of next week. A system will likely develop over the middle of the country in the middle of next week, which would be the main precipitation producer in the extended period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT): Scattered showers and briefly cooler temperatures moved through the region this weekend. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for the next seven days. This will continue to build the dryness and drought in the region as we head toward spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed across the east, but the dryness in the west continued this weekend. Some scattered showers may move through the region late Thursday and Friday, which may keep the drought from getting worse, but if these showers do not happen, conditions will continue to be poor as wheat begins to come out of dormancy.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell over the weekend but were moderate to heavy near the Ohio River. Temperatures above normal may have started to coax winter wheat out of dormancy in a few areas as soil temperatures are getting into the 40s Fahrenheit. These areas have adequate to surplus soil moisture. Little precipitation is expected for the next seven days and drought may worsen until a system moves through in the middle of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy showers over the last week have bogged down soils and produced some flooding across the region, putting delays into early spring planting. Showers this week will likely end after Tuesday, allowing for soils to drain.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed over a wide area this weekend. Showers this week will be focused from Mato Grosso to Rio Grande do Sul but a system moving northward will bring a front through the area late this week. The front will spread showers further east while clearing out southern areas. The widespread showers will likely cause more delays for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting, though producers have been working around the showers over the past couple of weeks. Rainfall will be more important for soil moisture as we head toward autumn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness has been a main factor, though showers did pop up over southern growing areas over the weekend, but they were not widespread. Popup showers will likely continue over western and northern areas through the week, but most areas will likely remain dry. This continues to cause concern for immature corn and soybeans.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell across northern and eastern growing areas this weekend. Warmer temperatures have allowed for snowmelt to continue, though crops remain dormant in good shape. Across the south, conditions have remained mostly favorable for vegetative wheat, though dryness in Italy over the last week has decreased soil moisture. A front will move through the eastern half of the continent late this week with cold air filtering in behind it, though not damaging to any wheat that may be starting to come out of dormancy.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Winter wheat went into dormancy in poor shape last autumn. Precipitation over the winter has been near to above normal for most places, however, putting the region in better shape as we head toward spring. Warm temperatures have allowed for snowmelt to occur across a wide area. A front moving through later this week will produce some showers and bring in some colder air but will not be damaging to any wheat as it remains dormant.

NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell in Morocco this weekend, but Algeria and Tunisia stayed dry, where deficits have started to come back to the region and are causing concern for vegetative wheat. A couple of weak disturbances may bring some isolated showers to the area this week, but amounts do not look impressive or widespread.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Scattered showers continued across the area this weekend, benefiting reproductive to filling corn. Showers will be much more isolated this week, but conditions continue to be favorable.

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AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers fell in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this weekend, continuing to benefit cotton and sorghum. Dryness is expected this week, however, conditions remain favorable.

MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Isolated showers started to pop back up in Malaysia this weekend, but were isolated and mostly light, continuing a dry trend over the last couple of weeks. Isolated showers will likely continue this week as well. Showers have been more scattered in Indonesia, where concern is lower for oil palm prospects.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday through Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers southeast early Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers late Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered moderate showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near normal Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, north Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

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John Baranick