Commodities Market Impact Weather

World Dryness Concerns

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Concern over dry conditions in the Argentina forecast and major international wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

SHARP MIDWEST CHANGE FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry and unseasonably warm conditions to cover the Midwest through the weekend. This pattern will favor late-stage harvest and fall fieldwork. Stormy and much colder conditions are in store during the six- to 10-day time frame. Precipitation may reach moderate to heavy amounts in the northern Midwest.

LIMITED SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS MOISTURE

The seven-day forecast continues mainly dry in the southwestern Plains. This sector of the Southern Plains region still needs moisture for wheat development ahead of dormancy. Heavier precipitation is again indicated for the eastern sector of the region.

VARIABLE NORTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

Northern Plains areas have dry and very warm conditions ahead through the balance of this week. The dry trend will be very useful for the final stage of harvest along with fall fieldwork. Much colder conditions with rain and snow move into the region during the weekend and early next week.

CONTINUED DRY DELTA FORECAST

Delta and Southeast crop areas again have dry and mild conditions ahead through the end of the week. This combination will allow improved harvest progress along with fieldwork. Tropical Storm Eta will be watched for possible rain to the Southeast next week.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil crop areas have a variable rain forecast during the next seven days. Northern and central areas have light to locally moderate amounts indicated, while southern crop areas have much lighter amounts ahead. This brings concern to central and southern crop areas where soil moisture needs are most acute.

CONTINUED DRY CONCERN IN ARGENTINA

Argentina crop areas have only light rain forecast during the next seven days. Soil moisture is in short supply over northern and western crop areas. This drier trend offers no meaningful easing of soil moisture concerns.

LIGHT RUSSIA SHOWERS

Russia wheat areas continue with a forecast for only scattered light showers forecast through the balance of the week. Wheat areas continue with precipitation deficits of well less than half the long-term average during the past three months. The Black Sea region is still likely to go into the dormant phase for winter wheat with soil moisture deficits.

AUSTRALIA FORECAST SHOWERS

Australia wheat areas have widespread showers forecast through the next seven days. Rainfall will bring some disruption to wheat harvest while offering useful moisture for summer crops. The Australia wheat crop is expected to be the largest since the record crop of 2016.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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