Commodities Market Impact Weather

Limited Western Midwest Rain

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Above normal temperatures and only light precipitation expected this week for the western Midwest and heavy precipitation in the Ohio and Delta Valleys in the 7-day forecast are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

LIMITED RAINS FOR WESTERN MIDWEST

Scattered showers fell across the northwest and far southeast portions of the Midwest this weekend. Showers fell across Iowa but were isolated with amounts generally less than 1 inch. The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for showers to be confined mostly to northern areas for the next few days, continuing to stress filling corn and soybeans in the drier central portions of the region. Relief may come late this week and into the weekend. A front will slip southward through the region and likely be aided by moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Laura. Depending on the speed of both features, moisture could make its way north of the I-80 corridor, but models are mixed on how far north this could go.

LOW CHANCES FOR WEST TEXAS RAIN

In the central and Southern Plains, isolated showers fell in a few areas during the weekend, but most of the region was dry. Soil moisture continues to be favorable for filling corn in most areas outside of northeast Nebraska and the far west. West Texas continues to have low rainfall chances, stressing remaining boll-setting cotton and requiring further irrigation.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas had isolated showers during the weekend, but most areas were dry. Isolated showers will turn more scattered this week, which will benefit filling corn but cause some harvest delays for wheat.

TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR DELTA NEXT WEEK

In the Delta, scattered showers fell across much of the region early this past weekend, bringing some relief to filling cotton and soybeans. Two tropical storms will affect the region this week. Tropical Storm Marco may increase showers over the south over the next couple of days, but Tropical Storm Laura could bring much heavier precipitation and flooding. Its current track is west of the region and then across the north late this week, but a shift further east could cause Laura's heavy bands to go right through the region. While filling crops would benefit from the moisture, it could cause flooding.

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POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST

In the Southeast, scattered showers fell across the region this weekend, benefiting filling cotton, especially in Alabama and across the Carolinas. Two tropical storms look to take a path just west of the region but increase moisture into the area and could bring heavier rainfall across northern areas as Tropical Storm Laura's remnants move through over the weekend.

VARIABLE PRAIRIES RAIN

Canadian Prairies had isolated to scattered showers over the weekend but were drier in the southwest where soils are driest. Periods of scattered showers are expected this week as a couple of disturbances move through, being steadier and more likely over the north where the crop is still filling. Conditions look favorable for harvest in the south and remaining filling in the north. A strong storm this weekend into early next week will likely cause widespread heavy rainfall in the west, strong winds across much of the region and falling temperatures into next week.

COOL CONDITIONS IN BRAZIL

Brazil had showers dry up as a front lifted northward this weekend, but temperatures fell near to below freezing from Rio Grande do Sul to Parana and maybe in portions of Mato Grosso do Sul as well. This may have damaged developing to reproductive wheat in the region. Full-season corn is also being planted in the south. Soil moisture is looking good for germination, but limited showers are expected this week with only isolated showers late this week in Rio Grande do Sul. Showers are starting to pop up over the Amazon and a return to the wet season is on the horizon for central and northern growing areas as harvest wraps up and preparations for planting begin.

VARIABLE ARGENTINA TEMPERATURES

Dry and cold weather were noted across most of Argentina this weekend, keeping wheat stressed or dormant. Temperatures and precipitation will increase this week, including for the very dry interior and may be enough to coax the crop out of dormancy, though temperatures drop again late this weekend and into early next week. Still, the rainfall will be quite welcome across the country.

SHOWERS IN EUROPE

In Europe, scattered showers fell mainly across northern areas this weekend and will continue into the southeast early this week, benefiting filling crops. The storm track will be right through the continent this week with a few storms lining up to bring showers to the region. There are continued beneficial conditions for filling crops for all but the southwest growing areas, mainly Spain and Italy. Maturing crops will have to dodge multiple periods of showers and early harvest activities will likely be affected.

MAINLY DRY WEEK FOR BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, scattered showers fell in eastern Ukraine and far western Russia this weekend, otherwise it was mostly dry. Dryness has been a concern for much of the region this summer. The drier areas from central Ukraine through southern Russia will be mostly dry this week until a storm system finally moves through with scattered showers late this week. Harvest activities will benefit while filling corn will continue to show stress in many areas.

DRY WEEK AHEAD FOR AUSTRALIA

In Australia, scattered showers fell over southern portions of the growing region over the weekend. Queensland saw no rainfall and is the driest area of the country which could use more rainfall for developing to reproductive wheat and rapeseed. Very little rain is expected across the country this week. Otherwise, favorable conditions continue elsewhere across the country.

FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

In China, overall favorable conditions continue in the northeast for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans and in the south for rice and sugarcane.

MONSOON MOISTURE IN INDIA

Monsoon moisture continues to spread across the country but is lighter than normal in the south. Still, conditions are favorable across most of the region. The outbreak of locusts has started to become contained as swarms migrate westward and control measures are reported to be working. Extensive damage has still been reported for all crops in the region, however.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: