DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

For the upper-level pattern, the northern stream features a trough moving into Alaska, a cutoff trough in western Canada, a cutoff ridge over eastern Canada, and a trough over Greenland. The southern stream has a trough in the eastern Pacific, a trough over the West, a weak ridge in the Plains, and a trough off the East Coast. The pattern will open up to a trough west and ridge east pattern early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the northern stream will broaden a trough over much of Canada into the northern tier of the U.S. while the western trough will start to move into the Plains late next week and into the weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, considering the difficulty of trying to figure out how to progress two different pieces of the trough next week. I prefer the European ensembles, though the operational version is much more amplified in the colder air moving through the country next week than its ensembles indicate.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and far Northern Plains and above normal most other places. Temperatures will generally cool through the period, becoming below normal for the majority of the country next weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...13 BELOW ZERO AT ROCKY BOY MT

24-HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 8PM THURSDAY...FARGO ND 0.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

A blocking pattern with a trough over western Canada and off the East Coast will open up into a trough west and ridge east by Monday. The northern stream portion of the trough over southern Canada will quickly move through the northern tier of the country mid-to-late next week while the southern stream portion of it will become cutoff, lingering in the west for much of the week before moving eastward into the Plains next Friday or Saturday.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement, considering the difficulty of trying to figure out how to progress two different pieces of the trough next week. I prefer the European ensembles, though the operational version is much more amplified in the colder air moving through the country next week than its ensembles indicate.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be below normal in the West and far Northern Plains and above normal most other places. Temperatures will generally cool through the period, becoming below normal for the majority of the country next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN):

A system spreads showers from south to north Friday with a chance at more scattered showers. A front will stall over central and northern areas, producing more showers in these locations over the weekend. Areas that are missed over the central and southern zones could show increasing/continuing signs of stress for developing corn and cotton in the north and corn and soybeans in the south. Showers may return to southern areas Monday and Tuesday but the front of the system again moves into central/northern areas. Some areas again could be missed from this system as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER):

Drier and cooler weather is expected through next week. Mature areas will likely benefit while the second-cropped soybeans still filling will need to be monitored for damage should the dry conditions continue through the early half of April.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/FIELDWORK):

Temperatures well below normal are expected through Saturday, stressing livestock, especially new calves and lambs, and put a hold on any fieldwork. Temperatures rise closer to normal briefly next week before going back below normal, perhaps well below.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK):

Winter wheat coming out of dormancy would benefit from any showers in the southwest section of the region. Temperatures will briefly fall well below normal through Saturday. Temperatures should not get cold enough to cause damage except for any areas in the northwest that have broken dormancy.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT):

Wet soils have a chance to dry out for one more day in the east while the west will see a slow-moving storm system with moderate to heavy precipitation Friday. The system moves quicker over the eastern Midwest with lighter precipitation. A couple of opportunities for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall continue into early next week, which would likely delay fieldwork.

DELTA (SOYBEANS, COTTON, FIELDWORK):

Recent moderate to heavy rain has kept soils moist, though some drying will be possible through Friday. The window of opportunity to get into the fields will be short as precipitation returns over the weekend and continues into next week.

SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE):

Overall, conditions continue to be good for filling corn and developing sugarcane.

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CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED):

There is adequate soil moisture for vegetative winter crops as they break dormancy, including irrigation reserves to the north.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED):

Decent rains over the last month or two have been beneficial for the winter crops. An outbreak of locusts in Pakistan is being reported to be migrating into India. Extensive damage has been reported for the early cotton and winter wheat crops in Pakistan. If this situation cannot be controlled before the main planting season in May, the cotton crop will surely suffer.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 7 C occurred earlier this week for many areas, including the southeast. Wheat in the tillering to jointing stage was vulnerable, but widespread damage is not expected as temperatures were likely just warm enough.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT):

Some much-needed precipitation has occurred the past several days. However, soil moisture continues to run well below normal and will be tough to overcome without continued soaking rain. Even so, the damage may be irreversible for wheat entering reproductive to filling stages in Morocco specifically.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT):

Vegetative winter wheat in the tillering to jointing stage is susceptible to cold temperatures. Low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 7 C occurred earlier this week. While crops were vulnerable, widespread damage is not expected as temperatures were just warm enough. While soil moisture has been adequate in Ukraine, it has not been so in Russia, where precipitation for the month of March was only 25% of normal.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE):

Showers will cause delays in the harvest of a damaged summer crop but will help to continue boosting soil moisture and irrigation reserves ahead of winter wheat planting, which starts in mid-April.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: A few showers far west. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered moderate rain with freezing rain and snow north Friday. Moderate rain continuing over the south Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night into Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers developing far west Friday, moving east Saturday, ending Sunday. Scattered moderate showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Showers possible northeast Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, below normal north and near normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/livestock)

Summary:

Scattered showers, snow northwest. Temperatures well below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast:

Scattered showers Friday. Some moderate snow and freezing rain north. Isolated showers southeast Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday, mostly southeast. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to well below normal Friday, below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers west Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday, snow west Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans and cotton)

Summary:

Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered moderate showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday but may be moderate. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary:

Scattered moderate showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers possible Monday. Isolated showers in Parana Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary:

Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday, better chances in Mato Grosso and Goias. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, better chances south. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary:

Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary:

Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

DTN Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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