Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heavy Rains in US; Rain for Southern Brazil

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Rain possible for southern Brazil, variable conditions in Argentina, and heavy rains leading to possible flood concerns in the United States, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

HEAVY MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for heavy rains likely to cover much of the Midwest from Missouri and Illinois to Michigan and Ohio and southward into the Delta at the end of this week and this weekend. This is likely to mean flooding, possibly severe flooding in some locations, and impacts to winter wheat and to transport. So far, the expected cold weather in the north-central U.S. is expected to remain mostly outside the soft red winter wheat belt.

NO COLD WEATHER THREATS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there are no significant cold weather threats for the winter wheat belt during the next 10 days, although we need to keep an eye on the much colder weather expected over the Northern Plains. Precipitation chances are limited to the eastern areas, possibly some central locations. There are no significant concerns in the southwest feedlots.

COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, no significant precipitation is expected during the next seven days, although some light snow may occur at times. The region will see episodes of low temperatures, possibly very cold at times. Increasing stress to livestock can be expected during periods of very cold weather.

POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN

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In Brazil, mostly favorable conditions continue in Parana and Mato Grosso and there have been recent improvement in Goias and in northeast Brazil. It still appears likely that rainfall chances will increase over the recently hot, dry areas of Rio Grande do Sul at the end of this week, during this weekend and early next week. However, it is difficult to point towards one period of time that the heavier rains would occur. Rains will likely improve conditions for corn and soybeans in RGDS.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR ARGENTINA

Argentina's key growing areas of Cordoba and Santa Fe should see scattered thunderstorms later this weekend. This will maintain favorable conditions for development. It will be somewhat drier in Buenos Aires and La Pampa during this period. Recent rainfall has helped improve conditions in these locations, but more is still needed, especially in western Buenos Aires and La Pampa.

WARM IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region of Ukraine and west Russia, there are no significant cold weather threats during the next seven to 10 days, with mostly above- to sometimes near-normal temperatures. Precipitation is expected to be near to above normal during the five-day period, somewhat drier during the six-to-10-day period.

PRECIPITATION FOR CHINA

Moderate to locally heavy precipitation has occurred in China's winter wheat and rapeseed areas during the past three to four days. This means adequate to surplus soil moisture and in some cases increasing snow cover. In either case, this is favorable for overwintering crops.

EUROPE CONTINUES DRIER

West and south Europe is likely to continue drier than normal during the next 10 days. This is a favorable trend after recent above-normal rains, although crop areas of southern Spain could use more rain. No significant cold weather is forecast during the period.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Scattered showers will continue to favor western and southern maize and southern sugarcane areas of South Africa through the middle of this week. There will be some increase in coverage of showers at the end of the week and this coming weekend. Conditions are improving for developing crops.

BENEFICIAL SHOWERS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for winter wheat in Pakistan and northwest India have received beneficial showers since the weekend. The showers should spread through Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday before ending. Not much of these showers reached into the key growing area for winter rapeseed, however.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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