Commodities Market Impact Weather

Improving Rainfall Trend for Argentina, Variable Conditions in Brazil

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Possible improvement in the Argentina rainfall trend, variable conditions in Brazil, and a warming trend for the central and northern United States are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST MOISTURE

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for mostly dry weather in west and northeast areas that will favor some harvest activity. Harvest disruptions remain over southern and eastern areas due to snow and rain early this week. A brief cold snap will see lows dip into the single numbers in the northern soft red winter wheat areas Thursday morning. This is not overly concerning but it will be watched. After that is a warming trend, reaching well above normal by the weekend.

MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, mainly dry conditions and increasing temperatures during the next seven to 10 days. There are no significant concerns for livestock as temperatures turn higher. Winter wheat areas could use more precipitation.

MIXED BRAZIL PRECIPITATION

Brazil will see episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers through the southern growing areas, Rio Grande do Sul to Parana. This will be mostly favorable for developing crops, except in areas of local flooding caused by excess rains in Parana. The west-central Brazil soybean area is under a near daily chance for showers that may be somewhat heavier at times, especially in Mato Grosso do Sul and western Mato Grosso. This is not that unusual for this time of the year. However, it does increase the risk for soybean rust issues. Drier, hotter weather remains a concern in northeast Brazil soybean areas.

ARGENTINA RAIN VARIANCE

In Argentina, dryness remains a significant concern for crop areas of north and west Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Recent showers have favored crops grown in Cordoba and Santa Fe, although some southern areas only had light showers. A cold front passage this Thursday night and Friday may bring light to moderate showers to corn and soybean areas but this may be only light showers in the driest areas of northwest Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba and northern La Pampa.

OTHER CROP AREA HIGHLIGHTS

Recent rainfall in India and increasing precipitation in China will improve conditions for winter wheat and rapeseed crops. Wet weather in western Europe remains a concern. It's very warm through east Europe, Ukraine and west Russia this week.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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