Commodities Market Impact Weather

Cool September Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A mixed rain outlook for the Midwest, a cool NOAA forecast, and a brief hotter trend in the Black Sea region, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy rain over the northern and northwestern Midwest during the next five days. The rain will be useful for crop moisture. Eastern Midwest areas will have lighter amounts, with dryness concerns remaining. Below normal temperatures will keep crop development lagging the average pace by around two weeks. Forecast indications point to the temperatures staying mild through September; this prospect will be closely watched.

COOL NOAA SEPTEMBER FORECAST

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecast for September calls for equal chances for above, normal or below normal temperatures in the Midwest, and below-normal temperatures over the Northern Plains. These trends keep frost concern prominent due to the delayed development of row crops.

STILL COOL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains' crop areas continue with a mainly cool trend and delayed crop development. An early fall freeze could do significant damage.

POSSIBLE PRAIRIES FROST

Canadian Prairies crop development remains behind normal, with crops vulnerable to frost potential. Temperatures averaging below normal during the next few days will further slow development of crops. There is even a slight risk for some frost in central and north Alberta as temperatures may dip into the 30s Fahrenheit Saturday morning.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine saw an early-week round of heat, with temperatures reaching into the 90s Fahrenheit. This heat will move east and south by the end of the week. No significant crop stress is expected.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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