USDA Grain Reports Summary

Corn Yield Unchanged From Last Month; Soy Yield 1 BPA Lower

USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports Thursday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

This article was originally posted at 11:05 a.m. CDT on Thursday, July 11. It was last updated at 12:38 p.m. CDT on Thursday, July 11.

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OMAHA -- USDA estimates this year's national average corn yield will be 166 bushels per acre (bpa), unchanged from last month. Its average soybean yield forecast is 48.5 bpa, 1 bushel lower than last month.

Overall production numbers -- at 13.88 billion bushels for corn and 3.85 billion bushels for soybeans -- are based on the June 28 Acreage report, which said farmers planted 91.7 million acres to corn and 80 million acres to soybeans. Those figures come with asterisks given the large amount of unplanted acres at the time. USDA is resurveying farmers this month, and it will incorporate that updated data into its next WASDE report on August 12.

The corn production estimate was toward the high end of pre-report expectations, while the soybean estimate was close to the average trader guess.

USDA estimates corn ending stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year at 2.01 billion bushels, 335 mb higher than last month. Soybean ending stocks, at 795 million bushels, are 250 mb lower than last month.

Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. Thursday's 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans and wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA projected higher corn production and higher 2019-20 ending stocks in the July numbers.

With corn acreage pegged at 91.7 million acres and a yield remaining at 166 bushels an acre, corn production was projected at 13.875 billion bushels, up about 19 million bushels from June's report.

USDA increased old-crop carryover from the 2018-19 crop by 145 million bushels from last month's projection. With production, USDA raised total supply for the 2019-20 crop at 16.265 billion bushels.

In use, USDA raised 2019-20 feed and residual use by 25 million bushels to 5.175 billion bushels. Total domestic demand was projected at 12.105 billion bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month. USDA held exports pat at 2.15 billion bushels.

The 2019-20 ending stocks for corn are projected at 2.0l billion bushels, an increase of 335 million bushels from last month's forecast.

The average farm price for corn is now projected at $3.70 a bushel, down 10 cents from last month's forecast.

In world production, USDA held with Brazil's 2018-19 production at 101 million metric tons (mmt), (3.97 billion bushels), the same as May. Argentina's production was raised 2 mmt to 51 mmt (just over 2 billion bushels).

Also with global numbers, USDA raised the beginning global stocks for 2019-20 to 328.75 million metric tons, an increase of 3.37 mmt. Carrying through the year and higher production forecast, USDA projected global ending stocks for 2019-20 corn would be 298.92 mmt, an increase of 8.4 mmt from last month's forecast.

SOYBEANS

USDA said farmers will harvest 3.85 billion bushels of soybeans this year, based on a national average yield estimate of 48.5 bpa and 80 million planted acres.

Ending stocks for the new-crop marketing year came in at 795 million bushels, down 250 mb from last month. USDA lowered its export forecast by 75 million bushels, which it says reflects reduced supplies and increased competition from South American exporters.

The national average farm-gate price increased by 15 cents to $8.40.

For the 2018-19 marketing year, USDA pegged domestic ending stocks at 1.05 billion bushels.

Global ending stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year are forecast 104.53 million metric tons, down from last month's estimate of 112.66 mmt. USDA said most of the reduction is due to lower U.S. production.

WHEAT

USDA pegged the 2019-20 wheat crop at 1.921 billion bushels, up from 1.884 billion bushels last year. That fell within the range of pre-report expectations.

Of that, the agency believes 1.29 billion bushels are winter wheat, up 9% from 1.184 bb last year. As of June 1, average forecast yield at 51.8 bpa, up 3.9 bushels from last year's average yield of 47.9 bpa.

USDA pegged hard red winter wheat production at 804 million bushels, up from 662 million bushels last year, and soft red winter wheat at 259 mb, down from 286 million bushels last year. White winter wheat was pegged at 227 million bushels, compared to 236 mb last year.

Spring wheat production for 2019-20 is expected to reach 572 million bushels, down 8% from 623 million bushels last year. Durum production is pegged at 58.1 million bushels, down 25% from 77 mb last year.

USDA estimated that ending stocks for old-crop (2018-19) wheat are sitting at 1.072 bb, within pre-report expectations. New-crop ending stocks were pegged at 1.000 bb, also within pre-report expectations.

Globally, old-crop wheat ending stocks were 275.15 mmt, slightly down from June's estimate of 276.6 mmt. New-crop global wheat ending stocks came in at 294.34 mmt, the same as June.

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Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at noon CDT Thursday for DTN's post-report webinar where he will discuss USDA's estimates, any surprises and answer listener questions. Sign up for Thursday's webinar at: https://dtn.webex.com/…

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Editor's Note: DTN editors inadvertently included several incorrect numbers in the first version of the USDA Crop Production and WASDE summary table in our USDA Grain Reports Flash story Thursday morning. This was an error on our part, not a revision made by USDA. The numbers that currently appear in the USDA Reports Summary story and accompanying table are the correct numbers. We apologize for the error.

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Jul Avg High Low Jun 2018-19
Corn 13,875 13,511 13,880 12,566 13,680 14,420
Soybeans 3,845 3,850 4,015 3,700 4,150 4,554
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)
Jul Avg High Low Jun 2018-19
Corn 166.0 164.9 167.0 162.0 166.0 176.4
Soybeans 48.5 48.4 50.0 47.0 49.5 51.6
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
Jul Avg High Low Jun
Corn 2,340 2,179 2,385 1,615 2,195
Soybeans 1,050 1,038 1,100 935 1,070
Wheat 1,000 1,076 1,102 1,055 1,102
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Jul Average High Low Jun Outlook
Corn 2,010 1,642 1,942 1,235 1,675 1,650
Soybeans 795 812 1,111 558 1,045 845
Wheat 1,000 1,028 1,092 925 1,072 944
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
Jul Avg High Low Jun
Corn 339.3 325.0 329.6 320.0 325.4
Soybeans 99.1 112.6 115.5 111.6 112.8
Wheat 281.1 276.1 278.0 273.0 276.6
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
Jul Avg. High Low Jun
Corn 298.9 290.2 294.5 282.4 290.5
Soybeans 104.5 110.7 124.1 103.0 112.7
Wheat 286.5 290.8 295.0 279.9 294.3
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2018-19
Jul Avg High Low Jun
CORN
Argentina 50.0 49.2 50.0 48.8 49.0
Brazil 101.0 100.9 102.0 99.7 101.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 53.0 56.1 57.0 55.8 56.0
Brazil 123.0 117.0 118.0 116.0 117.0
U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2019-20
Jul Avg. High Low Jun 2018-19
All Wheat 1,921 1,905 1,995 1,700 1,903 1,884
All Winter 1,291 1,278 1,314 1,231 1,274 1,184
HRW 804 804 835 783 794 662
SRW 259 254 262 240 258 286
White 227 224 234 220 222 236
Other Spring 572 581 625 550 N/A 623
Durum 58 60 80 44 N/A 77

(AG)