Commodities Market Impact Weather

Renewed Midwest Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A heavy rain pattern returning to the western Midwest, and continued favorable South America trends, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

NEW HEAVY WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for rain and thunderstorms to redevelop in the western and northern Midwest through the end of the week, the coming weekend, and into early next week. Extreme rain amounts are likely, causing significant planting disruption along with renewed severe flooding. A large amount of corn acreage may be lost due to prevented planting. Meanwhile, the southeastern Midwest has less rain and warmer conditions forecast, which will be more favorable for progress.

RAIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, moderate-to-heavy rain is indicated for eastern sectors through the next five days. The rain will increase delays to spring planting. Some corn acreage may be lost due to prevented planting.

WEEKEND SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

The Southern Plains will be warm to hot through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms redevelop during the weekend through early next week. Moderate-to-locally-heavy rain may occur in central and eastern areas, causing spring planting disruption along with possible quality issues in developing winter wheat.

WARM AND DRY IN DELTA

Dry and warm conditions are in store for the Delta through the next week. Any showers that develop are expected to be light. This pattern will allow for widespread fieldwork and planting progress.

LIGHT PRAIRIES SHOWERS

The Canadian Prairies had light-to-locally-moderate rain showers in eastern areas Wednesday. Showers are indicated for southwestern sectors Friday, followed by mainly dry conditions across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will be mainly below normal. Drier weather favors seeding progress; however, low temperatures and a lack of soil moisture will delay germination and early growth.

MILD BRAZIL CONDITIONS

Across Brazil, second-crop (safrinha) corn areas continue with a late-season drier trend; however, soil moisture is favorable for filling crops. The drier conditions are favorable for harvest. Southern Brazil will be drier, allowing improved harvest conditions after recent heavy rain.

FAVORABLE FOR ARGENTINA HARVEST

In Argentina, dry conditions through Friday will favor harvest. Light rain during the weekend does not look too much of a concern. Heavier rains may occur in the Cordoba and Santa Fe area early next week.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA FORECAST

Across the Black Sea region, light-to-moderate rain is in store for western Ukraine over the next five days. Eastern Ukraine and Russia will be dry. The entire region will have above normal temperatures. Soil moisture is generally favorable for crops at this point.

COOL WITH SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Eastern Europe will have additional moderate-to-locally-heavy rain through early next week. The entire continent is also in line for below normal temperatures. Wheat crop prospects are looking much larger than drought-affected production a year ago.

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA RAINS

Across Australia, the best chance for needed rain to occur is over south-central and southeast Australia over the next 10 days. This might include the easternmost areas of Western Australia's wheat belt. It should including wheat growing areas of South Australia and Victoria. New South Wales and southern Queensland look to be drier and warm to hot during the next 10 days, depleting the soil moisture put down by prior rains.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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