Commodities Market Impact Weather

Cool to Cold Midwest Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
Connect with Bryce:

OMAHA (DTN) -- A cool to cold Midwest temperature trend hindering field drying, and ongoing favorable harvest conditions in central Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

COLD AND WET MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for wet weather through midweek will continue to disrupt and delay corn planting in most areas of the Midwest. Low temperatures follow the rain, especially in the west. Limited rainfall during the six- to 10-day period may allow planting to increase, although low soil temperatures in northwest areas may slow planting progress for a time. River flooding is likely to continue for a while longer.

WET AND COLD NORTHERN PLAINS SOILS

In the Northern Plains, low soil temperatures and damp-to-wet fields will continue to slow planting progress this week. Next week looks more promising as drier weather and higher temperatures develop; however, many areas will need several days of dry conditions before fieldwork can begin.

CHILLY SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Southern Plains, frost or freeze conditions are indicated for early Friday in some locations. Damage to wheat is expected to be minimal due to delayed crop development. A drier forecast is featured through the six- to 10-day period. This will be more favorable for row crop planting, along with reducing disease concerns in wheat.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA

In the Delta, heavy rain and possibly severe weather are in store through the end of the week. This likely will delay and disrupt planting progress further. Northern areas may turn drier during next week, but it is uncertain whether this will also mean drier for southern areas as well.

PRAIRIES STAY DRY

Across the Canadian Prairies, precipitation is likely to average near to mostly below normal during the next 10 days. For some locations this may discourage early planting due to dryness. Temperatures will be variable.

FAVORABLE CENTRAL BRAZIL HARVEST CONDITIONS

Central Brazil continues with a drier pattern during the balance of this week. This pattern will favor harvest progress of second-crop corn (safrinha).

SCATTERED ARGENTINA SHOWERS

Central Argentina crop areas have favorable conditions for harvest. A few showers are indicated through the end of this week.

EUROPE RAIN

A recent increase in rain activity through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area but it may also mean some delay to seasonal fieldwork.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA MOISTURE

In Russia and Ukraine, generous winter and spring rains have allowed favorable conditions for winter wheat at this time. Wet weather may slow seasonal fieldwork in some locations, including early planting efforts for corn and sunflower. However, soil moisture for early development of summer crops should be quite favorable.

MINIMAL EASTERN AUSTRALIA FOLLOW-UP RAIN

Most wheat areas of eastern Australia need more rain to ensure favorable germination and early development. Rain chances during the five-day period are mostly for areas in and near Victoria. The chance for rain in northeast Australia mentioned Wednesday for the longer range appears less likely to reach wheat areas. Meanwhile, Western Australia remains dry.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CHINA

Key growing areas for soybeans in Heilongjiang, China will see a variable temperature pattern and episodes of precipitation during the next seven days. Periods of warmer weather and chances for rain will improve conditions for planting corn and soybeans.

BENEFICIAL CENTRAL CHINA CONDITIONS

Central China has mostly favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and rapeseed at this time due to April rain and adequate irrigation supplies, although recent dryness is leading to increasing needs for irrigation in wheat areas. Mostly favorable conditions for planting summer crops in the area, including corn, soybeans, groundnuts, rice and cotton.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
Connect with Bryce: